Elliott's Shadow Looms Over Triple Flag's Q3 Print

Triple Flag Precious Metals heads into its November 4 earnings release as a company whose ownership story is more compelling than its positioning data.

Elliott Investment Management's presence dominates the picture. The activist holds 64.7% of Triple Flag's shares outstanding, an extraordinary concentration for a TSX-listed royalty and streaming company with a CAD 5.8 billion market cap. Elliott first filed a Schedule 13D on this name at end of 2025 and has since amended twice, most recently as of June 30, edging its stake up from 64.5%. That is not a passive index position; it is control, and the company's strategic direction is effectively Elliott's to shape. As always with 13D disclosures, the stake reflects the last-filed position around the 5% threshold, though at 64.7% the direction of travel is unambiguous.

Short positioning carries essentially no signal into this print. Short interest at 1.0% of the free float is a low reading, unchanged over the past week, and the borrow market is wide open. Availability runs at over 1,600% of shares already borrowed, meaning there are roughly 16 available shares to lend for every one currently out on loan. Borrowing costs are modest at 0.55%, down on the week. The stock has fallen 9% over the past month to CAD 39.56, with a 2% drop on Monday alone, but that move looks driven by gold-sector weakness rather than any bear campaign: closest peers OR, ABX and WPM all fell between 1% and 4% on the week.

The real debate is about production. A recent ORTEX note flagged a potential production cliff, with gold-equivalent output at risk of falling below 100,000 ounces in 2026 due to reduced streaming contributions from Cerro Lindo, an outcome that would pressure cash flows and NAV per share materially. Bulls point to the stock's strong earnings-surprise track record, ranking in the 87th percentile on EPS surprise, and to the portfolio diversification argument that streaming companies offer. Bears focus on forward earnings, where the EPS 12-month forward year-on-year growth score ranks in just the 7th percentile. The EV/EBITDA multiple at 12.6 times has held relatively stable over the past month.

The only notable insider activity in the recent record is a cluster of open-market sales by James Dendle in mid-August at prices around CAD 44 to 45, totalling roughly CAD 2 million in value. The stock now trades about 12% below those levels, though the significance is limited given Elliott's controlling position.

The print will test whether Triple Flag's royalty portfolio can sustain near-term cash flows at a level that justifies the premium the stock has historically commanded over NAV, particularly as production volumes at key underlying operations come under pressure.