SIRI Borrow Cost Rises as Covering Slows

Why this matters: Short sellers have cut their Sirius XM Holdings positions by roughly 16% since late October, but the pace of covering has slowed. Cost to borrow is now rising, options markets are adding put protection, and Goldman Sachs stepped in with a Buy upgrade. Four distinct signals are pointing at the same stock on the same day.

Covering Stalls, Cost to Borrow Climbs

Estimated short interest stood at around 37.5 million shares on October 23. By November 3 it had dropped to 31.5 million. That is a meaningful unwind. But the most recent daily readings show the decline has plateaued: shares short ticked up slightly from 31.2 million on October 30 to 31.5 million on November 3.

As covering slowed, cost to borrow moved in the other direction. It sat at 0.57% in late October. By November 3 it had reached 1.02%, a 58% rise over the week and 73% above where it was a month ago.

Availability remains loose at 130.2% of short interest, down from 148% in mid-October but well clear of any squeeze territory. There are still roughly 1.3 shares available to borrow for every one currently on loan. The minimum availability reading over the past 52 weeks was 98.2%, so the lending pool has tightened but is nowhere near constrained.

The ORTEX short score sits at 70.2, up from 68.4 on October 27 but below the 74.1 reading of October 23, before the covering episode began.

Goldman's Upgrade Splits the Analyst Pack

Goldman Sachs upgraded SIRI to Buy on November 3, raising its target to $37 from $33. JP Morgan went the other way on the same day, cutting its target to $32 from $34 while keeping a Neutral rating.

The gap between the two is not unusual given the stock's setup. The bull case rests on 3Q26 adjusted EBITDA rising 3% year-on-year to $694 million, raised full-year guidance, and a YouTube audio partnership now reaching 255 million monthly listeners. The bear case points to a 1.0% revenue decline expected for the quarter and structural pressure from connected-car platforms reducing SiriusXM's footprint in new vehicles.

The consensus mean target is $34.31, about 11% above Tuesday's close of $30.80. Among other recent moves: Rosenblatt holds its target at $47, StoneX at $38, and Evercore ISI at $29.

Options Add a Hedge

The put-call ratio reached 0.52 on November 3, 1.74 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.46. The 52-week high is 0.64, so the ratio is elevated but not at an extreme. Options buyers have been adding put coverage into a stock that is up 13% over the past week and 20% over the past month.

Data Summary

• Short interest: 31.5 million shares as of November 3, down from 37.5 million on October 23
• Cost to borrow: 1.02%, up 58% over one week
• Availability: 130.2% of short interest; 52-week low was 98.2%
• ORTEX short score: 70.2 (November 2)
• Goldman Sachs: upgraded to Buy, target $37; JP Morgan maintained Neutral, cut target to $32
• Consensus mean target: $34.31
• Put-call ratio: 0.52, z-score of 1.74 against the 20-day mean
• Share price: $30.80, up 13.0% over the past week