LCID Borrow Near Zero With Earnings Two Days Away

Lucid Group is one of the most heavily shorted names in the EV space. Short interest at 31.8% of the free float is higher than peers RIVN at approximately 10% and XPEV, which are far less crowded by comparison. The stock closed at $3.02 on Monday, down 8.8% over the past week, while the median move across its closest peers was a gain of 4.7%.

Borrow Has Effectively Run Out

Availability has collapsed to 1.4%, meaning fewer than one and a half shares remain for every hundred already borrowed. That is the second-tightest reading in at least 52 weeks. On two separate days last week, availability hit 0.13% and 0.19%, near the floor of what can be observed. Cost to borrow stands at 15.2%, double where it was a month ago, though down from a peak of 23.8% on 22 October. The lending pool is as constrained as it has been all year.

Short interest itself has risen 13.4% over the past month. FINRA's fortnightly data puts the settled share count at 99.7 million, with days-to-cover at 9.7. That is not a position being wound down ahead of Thursday's earnings print.

Options Traders Are Not Following the Shorts

The put/call ratio fell to 1.55 on Monday, 2.6 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 1.78. That is well below the 52-week average range and near the low end of the past year. The short and options markets are pointing in opposite directions. Short sellers are dug in; options traders have been reducing downside hedges.

The ORTEX short score sits at 87.2, in the top percentile of all stocks on the platform. It has risen steadily from 85.7 on 21 October.

A Record Month for Washington State Deliveries

Against that bearish positioning, the company's own registration data offers a counterpoint. Per US state motor-vehicle department data, Lucid recorded its largest September for new battery-electric registrations in Washington state since records begin in 2022, with 46 vehicles registered. That is a narrow data point, covering one state, one month. No lead relationship between this dataset and the company's reported revenue has been established. It is a volume fact, nothing more.

California ZEV sales were down 12% year-on-year in Q3. The Washington record and the California decline sit alongside each other without a clear narrative direction.

Data Summary

• Short interest: 31.8% of free float, up 13.4% over the past month
• Availability: 1.4%, second-lowest in 52 weeks (intraday low of 0.13% on 2 November)
• Cost to borrow: 15.2%, up roughly 100% month-on-month
• Days to cover: 9.7 (FINRA, settled as of 15 October)
• Put/call ratio: 1.55, 2.6 standard deviations below 20-day mean of 1.78
• ORTEX short score: 87.2 out of 100
• Washington BEV registrations: 46 vehicles in September, largest since 2022
• Next earnings: Thursday 6 November

The level to watch is availability. If it recovers materially before the print, it would signal short sellers covering. At 1.4% and with earnings 48 hours away, that has not happened yet.