Midterms Rattle Markets as Chips and Automakers Take Centre Stage

US: Election Fallout and Chip Rebound

The 2026 midterm elections dominated Wednesday's headlines. Elon Musk donated $474 million to back Republican candidates. His net worth fell $23 billion after the results came in, with Republicans suffering heavy losses. Tesla faces fresh scrutiny as a result, with the political cost of Musk's activism now visible in dollar terms.

Semiconductor stocks staged a partial recovery after a bruising run. Micron sits at an RSI of 37. NVIDIA is at 33. Both names draw heavy options activity on both sides, with traders divided on whether the chip cycle has bottomed. Advanced Micro Devices got split analyst treatment today: Wells Fargo maintained its Overweight but cut its price target to $650, while Truist reiterated Buy.

Earnings: Automakers in Focus

Polestar and Renault report Thursday. ORTEX registration data shows Dutch car registrations lead Polestar's revenue by 60 days with a strong fit, and are running 68% below the same quarter last year. German registrations are running 32% higher, leaving the picture split. Honda also reports Thursday. Japanese car registrations, a leading indicator for Honda's revenue, are running 10% below the same quarter last year.

Europe: Diesel Collapses, EVs Surge

European diesel registrations fell to 1,383 vehicles in October, the lowest since the ORTEX series began in 2016. Norway sits at the other extreme. Zero-emission registrations there reached 15,514, up 43% on a year ago. Italy's annual inflation rate hit 5.6% in October, its third consecutive monthly rise.

Index Radar

Iveco Group faces index deletions from the STOXX Europe 600 and FTSE Global Small Cap, with $404 million of forced selling expected after Tata Motors' tender offer reached 99% completion. The MSCI World November review announces on 11 November. Xero can fall just 2.3% before breaching its exit threshold, giving it a 46% deletion probability. SharkNinja jumped overnight to 39% odds of joining the S&P 500 at the December review, up from 7%, with $3.9 billion of potential forced buying if it makes the cut.