XTB founder's September sale looms over a falling stock

XTB heads into its November 20 earnings with the stock down nearly 7% on the week, a founder still cutting his stake, and borrow availability tightening sharply from extraordinarily loose levels.

The dominant fact in this setup is the insider. Founder Jakub Zablocki sold 9.4 million shares in September at PLN 160, raising the equivalent of roughly PLN 1.5 billion. That follows an identical block of 9.4 million shares sold in May 2025 at PLN 78. The stock now trades at PLN 129.98, well below his September exit price. Zablocki still holds 27.8% of the company, so this is not a full exit, but two large sales in consecutive years from the founder and supervisory board chair are hard to ignore. No other insider has bought in the open market across the period on record, the only other activity being small compensation grants to executive board members.

The lending market is not reinforcing the bearish read, but it is shifting. Availability has tightened materially in recent weeks: the pool of shares available to borrow relative to those already borrowed has dropped from above 9,900% in early October to 1,637% now, still very loose in absolute terms but moving in a consistent direction. The pace of tightening is notable, availability has fallen more than 53% in a week alone. Cost to borrow remains negligible at 0.79%, down from a brief spike above 1.6% earlier this month. With the ORTEX short score at 29 and the 52-week peak in borrow demand still only 15.7% utilization, there is no sign of a heavily organised short position. The directional move in availability is worth watching, however, particularly with earnings two weeks away.

On valuation, XTB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 8.2x and a price-to-book of 4.5x. The PE has drifted lower over the past 30 days as the share price has fallen. Analyst data on the stock is stale, the last recorded price target of PLN 163 dates to August 2026 and should not be treated as current. The factor picture is mixed: the dividend score ranks in the 93rd percentile and the days-to-cover rank is in the 82nd percentile, both pointing to a stock that screens well on income and low short pressure. EPS momentum over both 30 and 90 days sits near the middle of the distribution, around the 44th to 47th percentile, suggesting the earnings growth story is not driving fresh upgrades. Forward EPS growth ranks in the 20th percentile, the weakest score in the factor set.

Among institutional holders, Norges Bank trimmed its position by 1.3 million shares to 3.8 million as of end-June. Vanguard and BlackRock both added in the most recent quarter, by 408,000 and 551,000 shares respectively, relatively modest moves against the backdrop of Zablocki's block sales. Schroders appears to have opened a new position of 1.6 million shares over the period. The founder's selling is simply the larger signal.

One piece of context worth noting: XTB was added to the STOXX Europe 600 in September 2026 following the quarterly review, with roughly $29 million of index-tracker buying flowing through on the trade date. That addition is now fully implemented and behind the stock. The index inclusion tailwind has passed.

The next scheduled earnings release on November 20 is the clearest near-term marker. Recent quarterly prints have produced modest one-day moves, with the stock gaining roughly 1% and 3% on the two most recent reports, though the five-day reaction after August's release was a loss of more than 13%. Whether the November print can interrupt the stock's slide from the September highs is the question, with the founder's selling price of PLN 160 acting as a visible overhead reference.