Huntsman Posts Q3 After Shorts Hit a One-Year Low

HUN has just reported its Q3 results with short interest at the lightest level in at least a year, call options dominating the order book, and a confirmed takeover by Olin reshaping the ownership calculus around the stock.

Short interest in Huntsman fell to 6.4% of the free float at the last reading, down from roughly 9% in late September. That 30-day decline of about 9% is the sharpest unwinding seen in months, and it happened into a week that delivered a 4.7% gain for the stock against a peer median closer to 1%. The borrowing market reflects the reduced pressure: cost to borrow has risen 37% over the past week to 0.56%, which sounds alarming but remains genuinely low in absolute terms. Availability is extremely loose, with over 3,900% of short interest covered by available lendable shares, well above its 52-week tightest point of 179%. There is no meaningful squeeze pressure in the lending pool, and the short book looks like it is quietly retreating rather than bracing for a fight.

Options traders are more directionally committed than the shorts. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.41 on Tuesday, the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks and roughly 2.4 standard deviations below the 20-day average of 0.44. That gap reflects genuine call demand, not just an absence of put buying: the 52-week high on this ratio sits at 1.74, so the current skew marks a material swing toward bullish positioning. The day's 4% drop to $9.55 suggests the Q3 print itself was not the catalyst traders had priced, though a single session does not unwind a month of positioning change.

The Street is consolidating around neutral ratings but raising targets in the wake of the print. Barclays lifted its target from $10 to $11 this morning while holding an Equal-Weight rating. RBC Capital moved from $9 to $10 on the same day, also at Sector Perform. Both moves put their targets above the closing price. The consensus mean sits at $10.50, implying roughly 10% upside from yesterday's close. The valuation picture is compressed: the stock trades at 0.62 times book and an EV/EBITDA of about 8.9, though the trailing PE of 57 is elevated for a chemicals name and reflects how thin earnings have been. EPS momentum factors rank in the 97th to 99th percentile over the past 30 to 90 days, meaning forward estimates have been moving up sharply even as the stock has struggled to follow. Jefferies retains the only outright Buy, though the firm cut its target aggressively from $16 to $11 at the start of October, a sign of conviction tempered by reality.

The deal overhang gives Huntsman a structural story that most chemical peers lack. ORTEX forecasts an 84% probability that HUN will be removed from the Russell 2000 following its agreed takeover by OLN, with an estimated $202 million of forced selling across index trackers. The estimated trade date is April 29, 2027, though those dates are ORTEX's own estimates and have not been confirmed by the index provider. OLN fell 3.4% on Tuesday alongside HUN, suggesting the two names continue to trade as a pair. Among the other closest peers, TROX dropped 7.6% over the past week while WLK added 3.5%, illustrating how dispersed the chemical sector has been. Peter R. Huntsman, the company's Chairman and CEO, filed a Schedule 13D in February and holds 5.09% of the class. That filing carries activist-level disclosure obligations; as with all 13D/G stakes, the position is as last disclosed and can change without further filing if it drops below the 5% threshold. BlackRock has been the most active large buyer, lifting its reported stake to 10.4% as of September 30 from 7.4% at its last 13G filing in July. American Century added over 3.3 million shares in the same quarter.

The next thing to track is how the Q3 numbers land against the downward-revised EBITDA estimates that dominated analyst notes through late September and October. With the print now out and two brokers already moving targets higher on the day, the question is whether the remaining neutral-rated analysts follow, and whether short sellers who cut exposure into the results begin rebuilding positions if the chemical demand picture stays soft.