Sportradar Pops on Earnings but Analysts Stay Divided

SRAD jumped 16% on the week to $14.20 after reporting Q3 results on November 3, yet the post-earnings analyst reaction captured almost every shade of opinion simultaneously.

The Street response was busy and split in direction. JP Morgan lowered its target to $12 from $13 while holding Neutral, putting the firm effectively below the current price. Truist, StoneX, and Needham each raised targets, with Needham moving to $20 from $17 as the most bullish post-print call. On the other side, Guggenheim cut its target to $23 from $26 and Citizens trimmed to $19 from $20, both retaining Buy-equivalent ratings. The mean price target now sits at $15.67, only about 10% above the close, modest headroom given that bulls like Guggenheim still sit materially above that average. The forward EPS momentum score ranks in the 98th percentile for the next twelve months, suggesting estimates are moving higher, yet the 90-day EPS surprise rank of just 20 tells a messier story about whether the company has actually cleared the bar on recent quarters. The bull case centres on the Kalshi prediction-markets deal, the company's $250 million buyback programme, and guided 2026 revenue of €1,557 million to €1,582 million with margin expansion of 200 to 225 basis points. Bears point to escalating sports rights costs, limited pricing power in the B2B market, and the risk that advertising revenue fails to arrive on the timeline management has outlined.

The lending picture shifted materially over the week but remains tight by any measure. Availability loosened from a pinch point of under 5% on October 26 to around 16% by November 3, a meaningful relief but still well below the 50% threshold that separates a constrained borrow market from a comfortable one. The 52-week minimum availability was 4.7%, hit just days ago. Cost to borrow fell 25% over the week to 1.37%, unwinding part of the spike that took it to 2.32% ahead of the print. Short interest has also eased, dropping roughly 4.5% on the day and nearly 4% over the week to around 15 million shares. The ORTEX short score edged down to 71.1 from 72.3 at the start of the week, still placing SRAD among the most heavily shorted names in the universe at the 6th percentile for short score rank. The post-results short covering and borrow loosening are consistent, but the base level of short positioning has not broken down. With availability still at 16%, there is no sign that the structural short thesis has been abandoned.

Options sentiment stayed calm through the event. The put/call ratio of 0.34 is barely above its 20-day mean of 0.32, a z-score under 1.0. That is well off the 52-week high of 0.67, suggesting options traders were not scrambling for downside protection into or through the print. Retail attention, as measured by Wikipedia page views and ORTEX traffic data, hit a z-score of 3.3 as of October 22, well above its own 90-day history, likely reflecting the buildup to the quarterly release.

The ownership register is dominated by a small number of large, stable holders. CEO Carsten Koerl holds 27.4% of shares outstanding. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board holds 23%, and Technology Crossover Management holds 9.9%. All three are filed as passive 13G holders. Spruce House Investment Management filed a fresh Schedule 13G in August 2026 disclosing a 5.8% stake of approximately 12.5 million shares. T. Rowe Price trimmed its position from 5.5% to 4.6% across two filings, dropping below the 5% disclosure threshold. The concentration of ownership at the top means free float is relatively thin, which amplifies both the borrow tightness and the magnitude of price moves around events like this week's earnings. As always with 13D/G disclosures, positions reflect what was last reported around the 5% threshold, and holders who drop below that level are not required to file again.

The next earnings event is not scheduled until March 17, 2027. What to watch before then: whether the borrow market continues to loosen or re-tightens as short sellers reassess the Q3 print, and whether the wide spread between the most bearish analyst target (JP Morgan at $12, now below the market price) and the most bullish (Guggenheim at $23, well above it) narrows as more data on the Kalshi monetisation timeline and rights renewal costs becomes available.