On Holding Shorts Retreat as Stock Surges 13.5%

Short sellers in ONON have been caught wrong-footed by a 13.5% rally last week, even as the position they hold remains one of the larger in the footwear sector.

Short interest runs at 10.4% of the free float, a level that marks roughly a year-long high, backed by FINRA's fortnightly report which put shares short at 32.9 million as of October 15. The monthly build has been steep: short interest grew 25.5% over the past 30 days. That said, the most recent week saw a small retreat of 2.1%, and the daily estimate ticked up only fractionally on November 3, suggesting the aggressive build that ran through mid-to-late October has paused. Despite the elevated short position, the borrow market is not under stress. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply, down 31.8% over the week to 0.41%, a six-week low. Availability is loose at 1,319%, meaning roughly 85 million shares remain available to lend against the 31 million already borrowed. That is a dramatic loosening from early October, when availability was closer to 213%. With borrow costs low and ample shares available, there is no meaningful squeeze dynamic in the lending market, even with short interest this high.

Options positioning tells a different story. The put/call ratio has climbed to 1.05, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.90, and close to the 52-week high of 1.06. That is the most defensive options posture On Holding has carried all year. The jump is notable because it came alongside last week's rally rather than before it: hedging activity intensified even as the stock gained ground, pointing to investors protecting positions rather than expressing fresh bearishness. The ORTEX short score has also eased from a recent peak near 55 in late October to 50.8, its lowest reading of the past two weeks, consistent with the week-on-week dip in shares short.

Analyst coverage has been active and mostly constructive. Wells Fargo initiated with an Overweight rating and a $48 target on November 4, the most recent action on the stock. BTIG reiterated its Buy at $60 on November 3, the highest target among recent moves. Wolfe Research also initiated at Outperform with a $47 target in late October. Raymond James raised its target to $42 from $38, maintaining Outperform, while JPMorgan lifted to $44 from $41 on an Overweight rating in October. The mean price target from analysts sits at $36.11, fractionally below the current price of $36.50, though the BTIG and Wells Fargo targets sit well above that average. The bull case rests on On Holding's management roadmap calling for high-teens revenue growth through 2029, gross margins holding at or above 65%, and adjusted EBITDA margins rising to 22% as the direct-to-consumer mix expands toward 50%. Bears argue that any slip in revenue growth toward sub-20% would trigger a sharp rerating, particularly if tariff pressures suppress full-price selling and gross margin gains disappoint.

The week's gain of 13.5% stood out against peers, most of which also rose but by less. UAA gained 13.9% on the week, the only close peer to match the pace. AS was up 8.2%, TPR 8.6%, LEVI 5.0%, and DECK 4.4%, while NKE added just 2.4%. Wikipedia views for On Holding carried a z-score of 2.9 relative to the company's own 90-day history as of late October, the highest retail attention reading in the dataset's recent window, consistent with the surge in price activity.

The company reports earnings on November 10, six days away, and the history of past prints has been sharply bimodal: a 10.4% single-day gain in September 2026 against a 20% single-day drop in August 2026. The days-to-cover ratio from the most recent FINRA data sits at 3.1 days, which means that covering the existing short position is not trivial. The next data points to watch are the earnings release itself and any shift in borrow availability or cost in the final days before the print.