Europe's Diesel Decline and Japan's Machine Tool Surge Signal Diverging Paths

The End of Diesel's October

European diesel car registrations fell to 1,383 vehicles in October. That is the lowest October count in the ORTEX vehicle registration dataset, which runs back to 2016. The previous October stood at 2,209 units, making the year-on-year drop 37%. The collapse lands against a backdrop of rising inflation. Spain's HICP reached 4.9% in October, the highest October reading in three years, up from 3.5% in October 2023, according to ORTEX EU macro data. The euro area rate hit 4.0%, also a three-year October high. Squeezed household budgets and elevated borrowing costs rarely encourage new car purchases, diesel or otherwise.

PSNY reports today. The ORTEX Dutch car registration dataset, measured to lead Polestar revenue by 60 days with a strong fit, is running 68% below the same quarter last year with one of three months in. German car registrations, a second measured leading indicator for Polestar with a strong fit over a 50-day lead, point the other way, running 32% above the same quarter last year with the full quarter in. RNO also reports today. Its Austrian car registration leading indicator, with a moderate fit over 32 days, is running 6% ahead of the same quarter last year with three months in. The Dutch registration series for Renault runs 21% below the year-ago quarter, though only one month of data is in.

Japan Breaks the Other Way

Japanese domestic machine tool orders rose 46% year-on-year in September to JPY 63,929 million, according to ORTEX Japan machine tool data. Machine tool sales climbed 36% year-on-year to JPY 184,641 million in the same month. Both are final readings and point to strong industrial capital spending in Japan.

HMC (Honda Motor) reports tomorrow. The ORTEX Japanese car registration dataset, measured to lead Honda revenue by 65 days with a strong fit, is running 10% below the same quarter last year, with the full three months in.

Gaming and Payments Pull in Opposite Directions

Macau gross gaming revenue fell 10% year-on-year in October, the weakest October growth rate in three years, per ORTEX GGR data. India's payments picture is brighter. ORTEX NPCI UPI data shows merchant payments up 24% year-on-year in October. UPI transactions per app have risen for three consecutive months through September. Meanwhile, US JOLTS data tracked by ORTEX recorded the largest September job openings count in two years, adding to a mixed but broadly resilient employment signal heading into year-end.