Sony Lifts Guidance, Microsoft Rejects AI Deal, Index Radars Flash

Microsoft Walks Away from AI Data Deal

Microsoft rejected a multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure deal with UK firm Nscale, the Financial Times reported Thursday. The move comes as hyperscalers grow more selective about capacity commitments. It adds pressure to European AI infrastructure names and raises questions about the pace of data centre buildout spending.

Sony Raises Revenue Outlook

Sony Group lifted its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from JPY 12,500 billion to JPY 13,000 billion. The upgrade is one of the largest guidance raises in the Japanese market this week. It arrives on a busy earnings Thursday that also sees Polestar, Renault and Nintendo reporting.

Polestar faces a tough backdrop. ORTEX alt data tracking Dutch car registrations, a strong-fit leading indicator for Polestar revenue, is running 68% below the same quarter last year. German data offers a partial offset at plus 32%.

S&P 500 Watch: SharkNinja Surges

SharkNinja's probability of joining the S&P 500 at the December Quarterly Review jumped from 39% to 64% overnight, per ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar. Its market cap stands at $30.9 billion. A confirmed addition would trigger an estimated $4.1 billion of forced buying over 11.2 days of normal volume. Rocket Companies also moved onto the radar, rising from 4% to 31% probability.

Europe: Recordati and FTSE MIB

CVC Capital Partners' tender offer for Italian pharma firm Recordati has a 93% completion probability and a window opening today. If completed, an FTSE MIB index announcement is expected Friday, with a deletion effective 10 November. ORTEX estimates $220 million of forced selling over 10.5 days of normal volume.

Chip names NVDA, AMD and MU are drawing the heaviest bearish options flow this week. Semiconductor bears remain active across the board.