Options Traders Eye Iran Relief and Midterm Swings

SPY options markets are flashing mixed signals Thursday. Iran's willingness to review "concrete proposals" on its nuclear programme sent oil puts higher. The USO oil ETF carries expiries through to January 2027. Traders appear to be leaning into a de-escalation trade.

US midterm election day adds another layer. SPY has near-daily expiries running from today through November 13. That density reflects elevated hedging demand around a political catalyst.

Chip stocks saw the heaviest negative options bets over the past week. NVDA and AMD both appear near the top of the negative-flow screen. NVDA's RSI sits at just 34.5, in oversold territory. Semiconductor names pulled the S&P 500 lower mid-week before a partial rebound on Thursday.

Rocket Companies is drawing unusual call interest. Its S&P 500 inclusion probability jumped overnight from 4% to 31%, per the ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar. Its market cap of $42.6B sits 46.7% above the index entry line. RSI is 75.2 and days-to-cover stand at 9.1. A confirmed addition would trigger an estimated $4.1B of forced buying over 8.1 days of volume.

Defensive names are running 100% positive on ORTEX's 7-day options score. ADP, Prologis and BNY Mellon all show exclusively bullish options flow this week. That tilt toward safety reflects the same uncertainty pushing SPY hedgers.

Strategy Inc options remain active after news questioning whether its Bitcoin strategy serves shareholders. Its RSI sits at 66.2 with a short score of 42.