Tech Rout, Iran Oil Trade and Midterm Hedging Define a Turbulent Thursday

US Markets

Ten US tech stocks erased $1.7 trillion in market value on Thursday. NVDA, AMD, TSLA, META, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and AVGO all featured in the selloff. NVDA's RSI sits at 34.5, in oversold territory. Options flow for chip names turned negative, with NVDA and AMD drawing the heaviest bearish bets of the past week. Iran's willingness to review nuclear proposals sent oil put volumes higher. Traders appear to be leaning into a de-escalation trade via USO. US midterm election day sharpened volatility further, with SPY carrying near-daily expiries through 13 November.

On the index radar, SharkNinja saw its S&P 500 addition probability jump from 39% to 64% overnight on the ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar, implying $4.1 billion in forced buying at the December trade date. Rocket Companies also moved, with its addition probability rising from 4% to 31%.

Europe and Earnings

Polestar reports today. ORTEX alt data shows Dutch car registrations running 68% below the same quarter last year, a dataset that leads Polestar revenue by 60 days with a strong measured fit. German registrations tell the opposite story, running 32% ahead year-on-year. The mixed signals make the print difficult to read. Renault also reports, with Austrian car registrations running 6% above last year on a dataset that leads its revenue by 32 days.

European diesel car registrations hit a record low in October 2026 at 1,383 vehicles, down from 2,209 a year earlier. EU air passengers in April totalled 128.7 million, the smallest April figure in four years. Both readings reinforce the weak demand backdrop that prompted Morgan Stanley to cut its target on Booking Holdings by $30.

Index Rebalance Watch

CVC Capital Partners' tender for Recordati carries a 93% completion probability. If it closes, an index announcement is expected tomorrow with a FTSE MIB deletion effective 10 November, triggering an estimated $220 million in forced selling.

The MSCI World November review announces in four sessions. Moderna is the largest expected addition at $6.9 billion in forced buying. Xero sits just 2.3% from its exit line.