Thursday Dispatch: Moderna, Defence Giants, and a Diesel Low

Europe's Big Earnings Day

Three major European companies report Thursday. Siemens Healthineers ($55.9 billion market cap) and defence contractor Rheinmetall ($52.4 billion) both post results, as does Swiss reinsurer Swiss Re. Rheinmetall has been one of Europe's standout performers this year. All three prints land against a backdrop of rising inflation. Spain's HICP hit 4.9% in October 2026, its highest October reading in three years. The euro-area rate stands at 4.0%, also a three-year October high.

Automakers in the Spotlight

Polestar and Renault also report today. ORTEX alt data tracking Dutch car registrations leads Polestar's revenue by 60 days with a strong fit, and that series is running 68% below the same quarter last year. German registrations, another strong-fit leading indicator for Polestar, are running 32% ahead. The picture is split heading into the print. For Renault, Austrian car data is running 6% ahead year-on-year across all three months, a mild positive signal.

Index Radar: Moderna and SharkNinja

Moderna is the largest expected addition to the MSCI World at the November review. ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar forecasts $6.9 billion of forced buying. The announcement is four sessions away, on 11 November. Meanwhile, SharkNinja surged overnight on the S&P 500 radar. Its forecast probability of joining the December index jumped from 39% to 64%, which would trigger $4.1 billion of buying over 11.2 days of volume. Rocket Companies also moved, with its S&P 500 addition probability climbing from 4% to 31%.

Shorts and Signals

Hertz remains under extreme short pressure. Cost to borrow hit 317% APR and short interest stands at 73.5% of free float. In Italy, CVC Capital Partners' tender for Recordati carries a 93% completion probability. If it closes, a FTSE MIB deletion announcement is expected as soon as Friday. That would trigger an estimated $220 million of forced selling over 10.5 days of volume.