Finland's October Car Slump Masks a Deeper EV Shift

A Record Low with an Electric Twist

Finland registered just 5,573 new cars in October, the smallest October total in the national register since records began in 2014, according to the ORTEX vehicle registrations dataset. That undercut the previous October low of 5,822 set in 2024. Yet the same data tells a strikingly different story for battery-electric vehicles. BEV registrations in Finland rose 53% year-on-year to 3,404 units, up from 2,224 a year earlier. The collapse in overall volume and the surge in EV share are happening at the same time.

Japan's new car sales register showed a parallel weakness. Sales of 316,619 in October were the softest reading for that month in three years, falling below the 327,203 recorded in October 2025. France adds a third strand: the ORTEX industrial production index for France has now fallen for three consecutive months, standing at 101.8 in September.

Korea and the US Pull the Other Way

Korea's air cargo register recorded its highest reading since the series began in 2023, reaching 1,329,788 tonnes in October, above the previous peak of 1,269,696. That points to continued freight demand through the region's main hub.

In the US, the nonfarm payrolls series published by ORTEX's jobs tracker showed October at 159,293 thousand, extending its rising streak to three consecutive months. The labour force participation rate also rose for a third straight month, reaching 61.9% in October.

The Print Ahead: Automakers on the Clock

Several automakers report today, and vehicle registration data has been measured to lead their revenue figures in out-of-sample backtests.

Honda Motor reports today. The Japanese car sales register, which has a strong measured fit and leads Honda's revenue by 65 days, is running 6% ahead of the same quarter last year, with one of three months in.

Polestar reports 12 November. Two indicators apply. German car registrations, which carry a strong fit and lead Polestar revenue by 50 days, are running 32% above the same quarter last year, with all three months complete. Dutch car registrations, a moderate-fit lead with a 60-day lag, are running 68% below the same quarter last year, with one month in. The two signals point in opposite directions.

Mitsubishi Motors (7211) also reports today. Dutch car registrations, a moderate-fit lead, are running 24% below the same quarter last year, with one month in.