Options Bets Surge Around Moderna's Profit Shock

MRNA dominated options desks on Friday after the biotech stunned Wall Street with a surprise quarterly profit and raised its full-year outlook. The stock has gained 719% year to date. Traders rushed to reprice upside exposure across near-term expiries, with the November 20 and December 18 strikes drawing the heaviest attention.

The move carries an added technical dimension. ORTEX's Index Rebalance Radar puts MRNA's MSCI World addition probability at 88%, with an announcement expected on 11 November, three sessions away. That would trigger an estimated $6.4 billion of forced buying, equal to 1.2 days of normal volume. Options players are clearly positioning ahead of that event window.

Chip stocks told a very different story. NVDA, AMD, and MU all logged the highest negative options bets among large caps over the past seven days. All three sit at deeply oversold RSI levels: NVDA at 25, AMD at 29, MU at 27. Put flow has been building as chip names struggle despite a brief Friday rebound. Headlines noted the S&P 500 snapped a three-day skid on renewed semiconductor buying, though the broader trend remains defensive.

ABNB offered a bullish counterpoint. A Q3 earnings beat drew multiple analyst price-target upgrades on Friday. Options activity skewed toward calls, with the $130 to $140 strike range seeing above-average volume into the November 20 expiry. ABNB's short interest days-to-cover sits at just 1.0, limiting squeeze risk, but the call flow looks directional.

GOOGL also attracted attention after news broke that its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $69 billion. Options volume spiked in the November 9 and 11 weekly expiries. Calls outpaced puts, though the stock's options score remains moderate relative to peers.

Broad market hedges stayed active. SPY expiries stretch daily through mid-November, reflecting persistent demand for short-dated protection. Friday's macro backdrop, with US nonfarm payrolls rising for three consecutive months, kept put sellers active on the index while single-stock calls dominated the flow.