Record US Payrolls Mask a Split Labour Market and EV Surge

America's Jobs Machine Sets a New Bar

The US labour market printed its strongest October in nearly three decades. Nonfarm payrolls reached 159,293 thousand last month, according to the US jobs and CPI dataset tracked by ORTEX, beating the previous October record of 158,408 thousand set in 2025. Wages moved in the same direction. Average hourly earnings hit $38.00 in October 2026, the highest October figure since the series began in 2006, up from $36.85 a year earlier. The two readings together mark back-to-back records for the same calendar month, a combination not seen across the full history of either series.

Canada tells a different story. Total employment fell to 21,100.1 thousand in October, the third consecutive monthly decline, according to the same ORTEX macro dataset. The divergence between the two North American economies is now running at three months and counting.

Petrol Fades, Batteries Advance

Europe's petrol car market hit its lowest October since 2016. New petrol car registrations across the European national totals fell to 4,548 vehicles last month, well below the 5,265 recorded in October 2022, according to the European car registrations data ORTEX tracks. The long decline in combustion-engine demand is now setting records at the bottom end of the range.

Finland pulled in the opposite direction. Battery-electric registrations reached 3,404 vehicles in October 2026, the largest October since the Finnish new car registration series began in 2014, clearing the previous record of 2,305 set in October 2023. Singapore logged a parallel milestone in September, when new battery-electric registrations by make hit a series high going back to 2022.

What the Data Points to Ahead

Several automakers report in the coming days, and vehicle registration datasets have been measured by ORTEX to lead their revenue figures out of sample. For PSNY, which reports on 12 November, German car registrations lead revenue by 50 days with a strong fit and are running 32% above the same quarter last year, with all three months now in. Dutch registrations, which carry a moderate fit and lead by 60 days, are running 68% below the same quarter last year with one month in. The two signals point in opposite directions with one month still outstanding.

Mazda Motor Corporation (7261) reports on 9 November. Its German car lead, strong fit over 30 days, shows the same 32% year-on-year gain with three months complete. Dutch registrations for the same quarter are running 5% below last year on one month in.

Honda Motor (HMC) and Nissan Motor (7201) both report on 10 November. Japanese car registrations, which carry a strong fit and lead Honda's revenue by 65 days, are running 6% above the same quarter last year with one month in. For Nissan, the same Japanese car series points 12% higher, with Italian registrations adding a 16% year-on-year gain on one month of data, both measured leads with moderate to strong fits. Isuzu (7202) reports on 11 November. India registrations, a moderate-fit lead over 69 days, are running 21% below the same quarter last year with one month in.