US and China Grab the Cash

US record jobs data and a persistent China reallocation are driving the biggest weekly ETF inflows in months. The picture this Saturday is unambiguously risk-on, with equities pulling in multiples of what fixed income receives and passive vehicles doing the heavy lifting.

Geography Flows: America and China Lead, Japan Stalls

The US pulled in a net $40B in the past week. Flow imbalance hit 66.6, firmly in buying-pressure territory. That aligns with October nonfarm payrolls reaching 159,293 thousand, the largest October reading since 1997, with average hourly earnings climbing to $38.00, a record for the month. Strong labour data is giving allocators confidence to stay long domestic equities.

China was the second-biggest destination, drawing $26.7B with a flow imbalance of 79. Over three months China has absorbed $71.9B, making it a sustained trend rather than a one-week punt. Taiwan added $5.3B for the week, South Korea $3.6B. Asian markets collectively account for most of the non-US inflow.

Japan is the clearest reversal story. It absorbed $1.3B this week with a flow imbalance of 67, but over three months it has bled $28.4B net. Allocators are still buying Japanese ETFs in short bursts, yet persistent outflows dominate the longer picture.

Brazil flipped negative on the week, losing $317M with a flow imbalance of just 26.1. India also attracted only $212M this week. Over three months India is actually slightly negative. Canada drew $744M for the week, though its three-month AUM remains healthy at $10B. Canadian employment has fallen for three consecutive months through October 2026, which may be tempering enthusiasm.

Sector Rotation: Tech Takes the Week, Industrials Bleed

Technology was the only sector to record meaningful net inflows this week, pulling in $3.3B. Its flow imbalance of 60.3 is barely positive, reflecting heavy two-way trading across $9.8B of gross inflows against $6.4B of outflows. Over three months tech leads all sectors with $16B of net inflows, though imbalance has sat at just 53.2, suggesting ongoing positioning churn.

Industrials suffered the worst week of any sector: a $1.4B net outflow with an imbalance of only 19.6. That reverses the three-month picture, where Industrials posted a $3B net outflow too. The sector has not found footing in either timeframe.

Financials lost $594M this week. Health Care was essentially flat on the week but has taken in $3.3B over three months. Energy was net negative on the week but positive $3.1B over the quarter. Utilities, Real Estate and Communication Services all posted modest weekly outflows.

Asset Class and Strategy: Equities First, Active Gains Ground

Equities absorbed a net $76.2B this week, with a flow imbalance of 70.9. Fixed income added $3.7B, positive but a fraction of the equity number. Commodities bled $445M on the week, though they attracted $31.4B over three months as a hedge. Currencies saw $1.5B of net selling this week.

Over three months fixed income has pulled in $280.8B, nearly half the size of equity inflows on a relative basis. That is a meaningful bond allocation running alongside equities, consistent with a risk-on but not reckless tone.

On strategy, passive vanilla funds dominated with $60.4B this week. Active funds added $1.8B for the week, but tell a bigger story over three months: $157B of net inflows, running at a 70 flow imbalance. Active is gaining serious ground on passive over the longer period. Dividend strategies lost $1.6B this week, a sharp reversal from $9.1B of three-month inflows. Growth took $2.8B this week and $21.7B over three months. Value added $1.1B on the week and $8.6B over the quarter. The growth-over-value tilt is intact but the gap is narrowing.

The overall tone is risk-on: equities dominate, the US and China lead by a wide margin, and the jobs-driven macro backdrop is giving allocators little reason to rotate defensively.