Record US Payrolls Lead a Mixed Global Picture

Labour market powers on

US nonfarm payrolls reached 159,293 thousand in October 2026. That is the largest October reading on record since 1997, according to the US jobs and CPI dataset tracked by ORTEX, beating the previous best of 158,408 thousand set in October 2025. Wage growth matched the milestone. US average hourly earnings rose to $38.00 in October, the highest October figure since the series began in 2006, up from $36.85 a year earlier. The two readings together signal a labour market still expanding in nominal terms heading into the final quarter of the year.

Canada tells a different story. Canadian employment has fallen for three consecutive months, with the total standing at 21.1 million jobs as of October 2026, according to the same macro dataset. The divergence between the two North American economies is now pronounced.

Europe's petrol car market shrinks again

New petrol car registrations across Europe came to just 4,548 vehicles in October 2026. That is the lowest October total on record since 2016, down from the previous low of 5,265 in October 2022, according to the European car registrations series published by national authorities and compiled by ORTEX. The contrast with battery-electric trends elsewhere is sharp. Finland recorded its largest October for new battery-electric car registrations since the series began in 2014. Singapore saw its biggest September on record for the same measure since 2022. India's digital payments, tracked by NPCI UPI data, also point to momentum: person-to-person UPI transactions rose 22% in October against the same month last year, and merchant payments by value climbed 18%.

What registration data says ahead of auto earnings

Several carmakers report within days, and ORTEX has measured registration datasets as leading indicators of their revenue. German car registrations, running at plus 32% on the same quarter last year with all three months of the quarter in, lead PSNY (Polestar) revenue by 50 days with a strong measured fit. Dutch registrations, with one month in and running at minus 68% year-on-year, also lead Polestar revenue. That split in the signals means the full-quarter picture for Polestar remains open. For HMC (Honda Motor), Japanese car registrations lead revenue by 65 days with a strong fit and are running at plus 6% on the same quarter last year, with one of three months in. Nissan Motor (7201) faces the same leading indicator running at plus 12% year-on-year. Mazda Motor (7261) sees German registrations pointing to plus 32% but Dutch data, with one month in, at minus 5%. These are where the registration data points so far, not predictions of the reported print.

One utility-sector reading stands apart. A reactor operated by PNW (Pinnacle West Capital) ran 10.0 standard deviations below its own output history as of 13 October 2026. That is the sharpest downside deviation in ORTEX's nuclear output dataset.