Record Jobs, Index Deadlines, and a Chip Short With No Shares Left

US Market: Payrolls Hit History Books

US nonfarm payrolls reached 159,293 thousand in October 2026, the largest October reading in BLS data going back to 1997. Average hourly earnings climbed to $38.00, also the highest October figure since 2006. The number sets a strong macro backdrop but raises questions about how long the Fed can hold rates steady.

Wolfspeed: The Short With No Escape

WOLF remains the market's most extreme short setup. Short interest sits at 88.9% of free float, available shares to borrow have hit zero, and the nearest options expiry lands on 13 November. Cost to borrow is a low 3.1% annualised, but with no stock left to lend, any forced covering could move fast.

MSCI World: Three Sessions to the Bell

The MSCI World November rebalance announces Wednesday. ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar gives MRNA an 88% probability of addition, with $6.4 billion of forced buying equivalent to 1.2 days of normal volume. On the deletion side, FLUT and TXT carry 78% and 79% deletion probabilities respectively. In Italy, CVC Capital Partners' tender for Recordati carries a 93% completion probability. If it clears, Recordati faces a forecast FTSE MIB deletion as early as 10 November, with $220 million of forced selling across 10.5 days of volume.

Europe: Shell and HSBC in Focus

HSBA heads into results with short sellers pulling back, according to ORTEX data. SHEL is rebuilding its deal pipeline after a week of selling pressure. European petrol car registrations hit just 4,548 vehicles in October 2026, the lowest October total on record since 2016. That backdrop adds pressure to PSNY, which reports Thursday. ORTEX alt data shows Dutch car registrations running -68% on the same quarter last year, a strong-fit leading indicator for Polestar revenue.

Automakers Ahead

HMC and Nissan both report Monday. ORTEX alt data tracking Japanese car registrations shows Honda running +6% and Nissan +12% on the same quarter last year. Both datasets carry a strong fit for revenue. The read is positive, though each covers just one of three months in the quarter.