Cloetta Rides a 25% Rally With Shorts Nowhere in Sight

CLA B has had a remarkable month, gaining 25% to close at SEK 61.65, yet the short-selling community has shown almost no interest in fading the move.

The lending market tells a story of complete indifference from bears. Availability is effectively uncapped, with over 37 million shares available to borrow and utilisation running below half a percent. That is as loose as the borrow market gets. Cost to borrow has drifted slightly higher over the past month, but at under 1% annually it remains trivially cheap. The ORTEX short score of 27.9 reflects this, placing Cloetta in the lower third of short-selling pressure across the universe, a rank that has barely moved over the past two weeks despite the sharp price appreciation. There is no squeeze dynamic here, no crowded short, and no sign that bearish positioning built into the rally at any point.

The stock's own factor profile backs up the bullish tape. Cloetta ranks in the 86th percentile on EPS surprise, meaning the company has a strong track record of beating estimates. The dividend score ranks in the 81st percentile, and the short score rank of 79 confirms how lightly shorted the name is relative to peers. Valuation has re-rated meaningfully alongside the price. The price-to-book multiple has expanded by roughly 0.54 points over the past 30 days to 2.75, and the PE ratio now stands at 20.5, up almost 3.7 points on the month. At 12.3 times EV/EBITDA, the stock is no longer cheap by historical packaged-foods standards, but analyst consensus, last updated in mid-October, points to a mean price target of SEK 65. That implies modest further upside from current levels, though the data is slightly dated at 17 days old.

The ownership structure explains part of why short sellers stay away. Hjalmar Svenfelts Stiftelse, the controlling foundation, holds just over 33% of shares. That alone removes a large chunk of float from any potential borrow pool and creates natural ceiling on how much short interest can build. Van Lanschot Kempen trimmed its position by roughly 1.9 million shares as of June, but BlackRock added 1.8 million shares through September. Dimensional and Vanguard made smaller additions in the same period, suggesting the marginal institutional buyer has been active. The insider data is too stale to draw conclusions from, with the most recent trades dating back to May and June.

The November 4 earnings release produced a 3.9% one-day gain, cementing the month's move. The prior print in July was more dramatic, with the stock jumping nearly 14% on the day and extending to a 16.5% five-day gain. That July result appears to be what triggered the broader re-rating. Among correlated peers this week, ORK on Oslo Bors advanced 4.8% and BARN on the Swiss exchange was broadly flat after a 3.9% weekly gain, suggesting the Nordic and European packaged-foods complex is generally in favour. Nestlé NESN was the week's laggard in the group, down 1.6% on the day.

The next scheduled earnings event is February 3, 2027. Between now and then, the question for existing holders is whether the valuation re-rating has run its course or whether the EPS revision cycle that drove the July and November beats has further to go.