GRPN has now published a near-identical note earlier today. The data has not materially changed, but one detail warrants a correction: short interest is running at 33.6% of the free float, not the 58% figure cited in the previous article. That discrepancy likely reflects a float calculation difference. The 33.6% reading, sourced from ORTEX daily estimates, is the figure used throughout this note.
The core tension remains the same. A stock up 41% in a month — closing at $20.69, with a 9.3% single-session gain on Tuesday capping an 18.8% week — is carrying one of the most entrenched short positions in the market. Shorts have not retreated. They are trapped in a borrow market with almost no room to manoeuvre.
The lending picture is where the story gets sharp. Availability has been at or below 2% for most of the past two weeks, touching a 52-week low of 0.73% on May 20th. At Wednesday's close, availability was back to 2.1% — meaning roughly two shares remain available to borrow for every hundred already lent out. That is extraordinarily tight. New short positions cannot be initiated at scale. The cost to borrow, at 1.58% annualised, is up 13% on the week and 8% over the month — still modest in absolute terms, but rising into a market where supply is essentially exhausted. The ORTEX short score of 77.1 places GRPN in the top tier of the universe for short-side pressure, and it has barely moved all week despite the price action.
Options traders are not joining the bears. The put/call ratio of 0.38 is effectively in line with its 20-day average of 0.38 and is close to the lowest reading of the past year (0.36 on April 30). The z-score of -0.36 is almost exactly neutral. That is a notable contrast: with 33.6% of the float short and availability near zero, you might expect options hedging to pick up. Instead, calls continue to dominate the flow, and the ratio is drifting toward the lower end of its 52-week range. There is no defensive positioning building in the options market.
The analyst community is split, and that divide is unusually clean. Goldman Sachs, the highest-profile voice on the stock, maintained its Sell rating on May 12th and raised its price target from $10 to $13 — a move that acknowledged the rally but still puts the target well below the current $20.69 price. Bulls at Northland and Roth have targets in the $39–$47 range, which the stock has not approached since before its decline from prior peaks. The mean target of $26.33 sits roughly 27% above Wednesday's close, but that average is being pulled sharply higher by the bull camp. Goldman's $13 target — the only action within the last 14 days from a major firm — implies 37% downside from here. That is the Street's most current and most pointed view.
On ownership, Pale Fire Capital remains the dominant holder with 26.8% of shares, unchanged as of May 1st. CEO Dusan Senkypl received a 345,003-share award on May 1st and now appears in the top holders list with 2.99% of shares — his stake growing through compensation rather than open-market buying. The COO sold 57,315 shares at $14.89 on the same date, collecting roughly $853,000. Neither move shifts the thesis. The insider pattern is consistent with executives managing vesting events, not expressing directional conviction.
The next earnings event is scheduled for August 6th. The May 8th print produced a 9.1% next-day gain and a 12.9% five-day move. The May 7th event itself showed a 12.2% next-day gain. Post-earnings momentum has been strongly positive in recent history. That context matters: the stock has form for gapping higher on results, into a borrow market that cannot absorb new short supply. What to watch between now and August is whether availability stays near zero — and whether the cost to borrow, still low in absolute terms, begins to reflect the supply constraint more aggressively.
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