Société BIC SA has settled into a new equilibrium after the dramatic borrow-market shift of recent weeks, with the short score steady above 58 and availability no longer collapsing — the story has moved from acute dislocation to a watch-and-wait phase ahead of Q2 results in late July.
The lending market is the thread connecting the last three notes on this name, and for good reason. Availability has now stabilised in the 250% range — a fraction of the 1,700%-plus levels that characterised most of April and early May, but no longer in freefall. The previous article flagged the initial wave of new short demand being absorbed at 221%; availability has since edged back toward 253%, confirming the floor. Cost to borrow remains benign at 0.83%, down from a brief mid-week spike to 1.18%. The structural shift is real and persistent, but the acute pressure has passed.
The short score tells a consistent story: it has held above 57 for four straight sessions, reaching 58.2 on May 28. That is roughly twelve points above the sub-46 levels it traded at for most of the prior two weeks. The score's persistence at this level — rather than fading back — suggests the lending pool repricing was genuine, not transient. Yet short interest itself, running near 2.8% of free float, remains modest by any measure. Days to cover ranks in the bottom 1st percentile for the universe. This is not a heavily shorted name. The short score elevation reflects tighter borrow conditions, not a meaningful build in bearish conviction.
The ownership picture is the more distinctive feature here. The Bich family entities — Société MBD and the Bich Family Trust — control close to 46% of shares between them, and the third-largest registered holder, Olivier Goudet, holds a further 10%. Amundi added nearly 960,000 shares in the most recent quarter, and Brandes Investment Partners, a known value-oriented manager, holds over 7% of shares. Free float is structurally limited, which explains why even modest short demand can shift availability metrics dramatically. Recent insider activity has been low-key: a cluster of small directorial buys in January and February, plus a modest CEO division sale in March. The net 90-day insider position is barely positive in value terms and carries little signal.
On valuation, BIC trades at 12.3x trailing earnings and 5.7x EV/EBITDA — not stretched, but not cheap given that EPS momentum is negative (ranked in the 18th percentile over 30 days, 25th over 90 days). The mean analyst price target of €57.55 is marginally below the current €58.40 close, implying the Street sees no near-term re-rating catalyst. Analyst data is somewhat dated at this point — the most recent changes were logged in early May — so that target should be treated as approximate rather than current. The dividend score ranks highly at the 82nd percentile, which fits the shareholder-return profile of a family-controlled consumer goods company, but the most recent dividend data in the system is stale and should not be relied upon for yield calculations.
Among peers, ELIS — another Paris-listed services name — added 1.6% on the day and is roughly flat on the week. HNI slipped nearly 2% on Friday. Neither move is meaningful for BIC's directional read. The next event to calibrate against is Q2 results scheduled for July 29. After the last four reporting dates, BIC moved between flat and 2.8% in either direction over the following session — a low-volatility earnings history that offers little guidance on what to expect from a structurally tighter borrow market meeting a modest-catalyst print.
What to watch: whether the short score sustains above 58 through the summer lull, or retreats as the new borrow equilibrium normalises and attention shifts to whether July's results can reverse the negative EPS momentum trend.
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