BlackBerry Reports Tomorrow — History Warns Both Ways

BB heads into its June 25 earnings print having slipped 2.3% on the week to CAD 12.54, with the stock now roughly 12% below its recent peak but still up 15% over the past month — a setup where the direction of travel matters as much as the number itself.

The earnings history makes the range of outcomes unusually wide. April's print produced an 8.4% single-day gain and a 31% five-day surge. December 2025's went the other way — down 12% on the day and nearly 10% over the following week. Two prints, two dramatically different outcomes, and no obvious pattern to lean on. The stock has not recaptured last week's stabilisation level near CAD 12.83, and Tuesday's modest 0.6% gain does not suggest momentum is building into the release.

The lending market is not positioning for drama. Short interest has drifted higher through the week — up 4% to 1.88% of the free float — but that is still a low absolute level, and it tracks the pattern from the previous note, where shorts that unwound during the May-June rally began quietly rebuilding. Borrowing costs remain almost frictionless at 0.51% annualised, down sharply from the 1.0% spike seen in mid-May. Availability is ample at 430%, well above the 52-week trough of 178%, meaning new short positions face essentially no friction in the lending pool. The borrow market, in short, is not signalling any particular conviction on either side.

The broader picture from factor scores and ownership is similarly neutral. BlackBerry's ORTEX short score of 35.7 is mid-range and barely moved over the past two weeks, consistent with a stock where the short-side positioning is modest rather than aggressive. Momentum remains the standout pillar — the prior stock-score note flagged a reading above 95 — but that reflects the trailing price move rather than any forward signal. Among correlated peers, CDNS dropped 2.6% on the day and OSPN fell nearly 5% over the week, while QBTS and DUOT bucked the trend with gains of 4.6% and 6.8% respectively — a mixed backdrop that offers no directional read for BB specifically. On the institutional side, Fifthdelta added 8.8 million shares in the most recent reporting period, and Legal & General added 4.6 million, but those are Q1 filings and predate the stock's 50% run. Whether they represent conviction or are now sitting on large unrealised gains is an open question.

The valuation data is stale — the multiples reflect figures from early 2025 and should not be read as current guidance on how the Street is pricing the stock into this print. What is current is the price itself: CAD 12.54 on a company that was trading in the low single digits not long ago, reporting against a backdrop of slow growth in its core QNX and cybersecurity segments. Tomorrow's result will test whether the re-rating of the past month reflects a genuine shift in the business or something more fragile.