BB steps into its June 25 earnings print at CAD 12.54, down 2.3% on the week but 15% higher over the past month — a stock that has run hard, pulled back, and now sits at exactly the kind of inflection where the result will either validate the rally or test its foundations.
The two most recent prints could hardly be more different, and that contrast is the most useful thing the data offers. April's result produced an 8.4% single-day gain and a 31% five-day surge. December 2025's went the opposite way — down 12% on the day and nearly 10% over the following week. There is no pattern to lean on; the range of outcomes is genuinely wide, and Tuesday's modest 0.6% session gain does nothing to resolve the ambiguity.
The lending market has taken no strong directional view. Short interest nudged higher through the week to 1.88% of the free float — a low absolute level, consistent with the drift noted in earlier notes where shorts quietly rebuilt after unwinding during the May-June rally. Borrowing costs are almost frictionless at 0.51% annualised. Availability remains ample at 430%, with roughly four shares available for every one currently lent out. None of this signals squeeze pressure or aggressive conviction from either side.
The fundamental debate centres on whether BlackBerry's software pivot is translating into durable profitability. The ORTEX stock note flags improved free cash flow projections for FY27 and a strengthened balance sheet after divestitures, while the momentum score sits near the top of the universe at 95.2 — a reflection of the stock's extraordinary price trend rather than fundamental acceleration. The bears' counterpoint is that growth and value scores are both subdued around 44, competitive pressures in secure communications remain real, and the stock at CAD 12.54 is pricing in execution that has yet to be consistently delivered.
Today's print is less about any single revenue line and more about whether management's margin and cash flow trajectory convinces the market the April re-rating was earned rather than borrowed.
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