BX short base extends its rebuild as price slips further

The short positioning story has picked up momentum. The May 28 convergence note flagged a sharp single-session reversal in short interest after weeks of retreat. That rebuild has continued: SI climbed another 1.9% on Tuesday alone, bringing it to 2.43% of free float — a 19% jump week-on-week. To put that in context, SI was running near 3.1% of float in late April, collapsed to roughly 2.0% through mid-May, and has now retraced more than half that unwind in just two weeks. Bears that sat out the price weakness in April and May are now returning during continued weakness. The borrow market remains wide open — availability is running at 2,206%, meaning there are more than 22 shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is negligible at 0.43%, down 24% on the week. There is no mechanical friction slowing further short building. Options positioning offers little additional signal: the put/call ratio at 1.49 is essentially flat to its 20-day average of 1.49, with a z-score near zero — options traders are not registering unusual conviction in either direction.

The Street's posture remains cautious but not hostile. Most recent analyst activity, from mid-May back through late April, saw a cluster of target reductions: TD Cowen trimmed to $133 in mid-May while holding Buy, and JPMorgan cut to $136 while staying Neutral. Morgan Stanley made the sharpest revision in late April — slashing its target to $184 from $215, though keeping Overweight. With the consensus mean target at $143.65 against a $114.91 close, implied upside sits at roughly 25%, which sounds generous but has been compressing as targets drift lower. The analyst rec diff factor score ranks in the 94th percentile — meaning the gap between analyst optimism and current price is unusually wide relative to history, which can reflect either genuine opportunity or a Street that has not yet finished marking down. Forward-year EPS growth expectations remain a relative bright spot, ranking in the 75th percentile, while near-term EPS momentum over 90 days is weaker at the 26th percentile. Bulls point to Blackstone's scale across private equity, real estate, credit, and infrastructure as structural advantage. Bears flag the flat fee guidance and peer multiple compression that has already forced two rounds of estimate cuts for 2026 and 2027.

Insider activity adds a small but notable footnote. The Chief Administration Officer sold just over $3.7 million in shares on May 1, at prices between $125.55 and $126.11 — well above the current price of $114.91. That is a routine executive sale on its own, but the fact that it occurred near what now looks like a local high adds texture to the price narrative. Earlier insider history shows director James Breyer buying nearly $4 million worth of stock in October and November 2025 at prices above $140, so insider views have not been uniformly negative — though that buying predates the current drawdown.

With Q2 results scheduled for July 17, the next firm anchor is seven weeks out. The question heading into that print is whether the short rebuild — now well documented across three consecutive notes — continues to gain pace, and whether the gap between analyst targets and the stock price begins to close through price recovery or further target cuts.