JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — is showing the first tentative cracks in its bearish positioning: the stock jumped nearly 6% in a single session and borrow availability has loosened materially, even as short sellers remain deeply entrenched.
The shift in the lending market is the most notable development since Monday's note. Availability has climbed to roughly 41% of shares borrowed — nearly double the reading of 18–19% that held for most of the week ending May 26, and a sharp recovery from the 52-week low of just 1.1% seen earlier in the year. That means new short positions are meaningfully easier to establish than they were a fortnight ago, which is a double-edged signal: the lending squeeze that had been compressing availability has partially released, but the structural short thesis remains intact. Cost to borrow has also drifted lower — currently 8.31% annualised, down around 5% on both a weekly and monthly basis — confirming that some of the acute demand pressure in the borrow market has abated. The ORTEX short score of 74.4 remains high in absolute terms, and has been edging down from its peak of 75.3 on May 22, consistent with a modest softening rather than any meaningful unwind.
Short interest itself is still deeply embedded. The previous note recorded SI at 9.37% of free float, built steadily from 8.46% in late April. Nothing in the availability or CTB data suggests that shorts have reduced their positions in size — the easing reflects increased supply of lendable shares, not a rush to cover. The lending market has loosened, but the conviction behind the trade has not visibly shifted.
The Street remains structurally cautious. The mean analyst price target of PLN 22.25 sits roughly 24% below the current price of PLN 29.30 — an unusual configuration where the stock has traded above consensus for some time. That gap is reflected in the factor scores: the analyst recommendation differential ranks in the 94th percentile, suggesting that JSW's market price diverges significantly from where analysts think fair value lies. EPS momentum is weak, ranking in the 1st percentile on a 30-day basis and the 7th on 90-day. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.8x has nudged higher over the past week and month, but the PE ratio is deeply negative, consistent with a company not currently generating net profit. The price-to-book of 0.57x reflects the market's scepticism about the carrying value of the assets.
Ownership is dominated by the Polish State Treasury, which controls 55% of shares and has been static in its position. International passive and active managers — Vanguard, BlackRock, Dimensional — hold marginal stakes and have made only minor adjustments recently. Insider data is stale, with the most recent disclosed trades dating to 2017, so it carries no read-through to current sentiment. The dividend history is similarly dated; no payment has been declared since 2019, and none is signalled.
The next earnings release is scheduled for August 20. The most recent result — reported May 19 — produced a 2.4% one-day pullback followed by an 8.3% five-day recovery, a pattern worth noting as the next print approaches. For now, the tension to watch is whether the stock can sustain this week's price bounce above PLN 29 while shorts hold their positions and availability remains in the 40% range — a zone that is tight enough to keep borrow costs elevated, but loose enough to allow new positioning to develop in either direction.
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