QCOM Drops 15% in a Week — But Shorts Are Leaving, Not Arriving

QUALCOMM has shed 15% in a week to close at $205.42, yet the most striking feature of the selloff is that short sellers are not piling in — they are pulling back.

The defensive lean in options is the clearest continuation from last week's note. The put/call ratio has climbed further to 0.92, now running nearly 1.6 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.79. That is up from the 0.85 level flagged a week ago, and marks the most defensive options posture since the 52-week high of 1.09. The demand for downside protection has intensified even as the share price has already moved sharply lower — suggesting options traders are hedging the June 24 earnings print rather than simply reacting to the week's price action.

Short interest tells a contrarian story. The short position fell 16% over the week to 3.65% of the free float — now meaningfully below the late-April peak of roughly 5.2% — and the borrow market gives no sign of stress. Cost to borrow is a modest 0.48%, up only slightly on the week. Availability is extraordinarily loose at over 4,000% of current short interest, compared with around 2,940% a week ago — the lending pool has actually expanded as shorts have covered. The ORTEX short score has eased to 34.1, its lowest reading of the past two weeks, down from 38.2 at the end of May. That combination — a falling position, loose borrow, low short score — points to short sellers treating the drop as a covering opportunity rather than a new entry.

The Street is similarly split. Bulls point to Qualcomm's $20 billion buyback authorisation, a growing AI and automotive design-win pipeline, and a 99th-percentile dividend score among factor ranks. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed to 15x, down almost a full turn on the week as the price fell, making valuation modestly more attractive by that measure. Bears counter with the structural risk: heavy reliance on CDMA/OFDMA licensing fees facing rising competition, and questions about whether the hyperscaler chip engagement announced earlier in the year can sustain momentum. The analyst consensus mean target of $180 sits below the current price of $205 — a gap that reflects how sharply the stock re-rated after April's blowout earnings. Most post-earnings target raises clustered between $150 and $200, with JP Morgan at $160 and UBS at $170 still below current levels even after their upgrades; only Tigress Financial sits meaningfully higher at $280, while Daiwa upgraded to Outperform with a $225 target in early May. The consensus, in short, has the stock priced ahead of where most analysts think it should be.

The peer group confirms the selloff is sector-wide but QCOM is faring worse than most. AMD fell 8.8% on the week and MU dropped 12%, while KOPN led declines at -19%. IFX on Frankfurt was down 14%, closely matching QCOM's move. The selling appears broad-based across semis rather than specific to Qualcomm's story.

With the June 24 earnings date now two weeks out, the divergence between falling short interest and rising options defensiveness is the tension worth tracking — specifically whether the put/call ratio continues to climb toward its 52-week high of 1.09 as the print approaches, or whether the stock's already sharp decline absorbs enough of the risk premium to flatten the hedging demand.