JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — has partially clawed back last week's steep losses, adding 1.9% on Monday to trade at PLN 26.19, but the lending market is now moving against the price recovery in a way the June 12 note did not capture.
The key development this week is a sharp reversal in borrow availability. After the June 12 note described availability retreating from its early-June peak of 46.6% to 34.4%, the slide has accelerated. Availability has now tightened further to 18.7% — fewer than one share available for every five already borrowed — a drop of more than 50% in a single week. That puts the lending pool back at the compressed levels seen through late May, and uncomfortably close to the 52-week low of 6.1%. Cost to borrow has followed a jagged path: it fell sharply mid-week to around 6.2%, then climbed back to 7.7% by Sunday, leaving it about 9% lower on the week but clearly finding a floor. The overall picture in the borrow market is renewed tightening, not further loosening.
The ORTEX short score has pushed higher, reaching 76.6 on June 15 — its highest reading in the recent data series and up from 74.9 when the June 12 note was filed. The factor scores reinforce how bearish the technical setup remains. JSW ranks in the bottom 5th percentile on both utilization and days-to-cover, and the short score rank is essentially zero — meaning few stocks in the universe score as bearish on the combined short-positioning framework. EPS momentum has deteriorated sharply, with the 30-day rank at just the 1st percentile. These are not marginal readings; they reflect a stock where short positioning is deeply embedded and growing more so.
The Street picture has not shifted. The analyst consensus mean price target of PLN 22.25 implies the stock is already trading roughly 18% above where analysts think it belongs at PLN 26.19 — and with the latest analyst change data now over 20 days old, there is no fresh catalyst from the sell-side to challenge that. Ownership remains heavily concentrated: the Polish State Treasury holds 55% of shares, keeping free float thin and short positioning structurally more impactful per share. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.5x looks undemanding in isolation, but an earnings yield barely above zero and a PE ratio that the valuation data itself renders near-meaningless all point to a business generating very little current profit.
Against this backdrop, one piece of context worth noting is the most recent earnings reaction. The May 19 print produced a 2.4% drop on the day, followed by an 8.3% recovery over the five-day window — a pattern consistent with volatility around results rather than a directional trend. The next earnings event is scheduled for August 20, leaving roughly nine weeks before another fundamental anchor arrives.
What to watch: whether borrow availability continues tightening toward the 52-week low — and whether the short score holds above 76 as the next data readings arrive.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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