BlackBerry Steadies After the Pullback, With Earnings Eight Days Out

BB has partially recovered this week — up 4.5% to CAD 12.83 — but the real story is what happens on June 25, when the company reports earnings with the stock still sitting 50% above where it was a month ago.

The price action is the clearest frame for everything else in the data. Last week's note captured the pullback phase, when the stock shed 14% from its CAD 14.23 peak. This week's 4.5% bounce has stabilised the chart without reclaiming those highs, and the one-day dip of just over 1% on Tuesday suggests momentum is neutral rather than reviving. History offers a relevant reference point: the most recent comparable earnings event — April 9 — produced an 8.4% single-day gain and a remarkable 31% five-day move. The prior print, in December 2025, went the other way: down 12% on the day and nearly 10% over the week. Range of outcomes, in other words, is wide.

The lending market has no strong view on direction. Short interest nudged up 7% on the week to 1.78% of the free float — a recovery of some shorts that unwound during last week's pullback, but still a modest absolute level. Borrowing costs are essentially frictionless at 0.52% annualised, barely changed from six weeks ago. Availability is generous at 384%, meaning roughly three-and-a-half shares remain available to borrow for every one currently lent out — the loosest end of the past 30-day range. Taken together, the lending market reads as indifferent rather than charged. This is not a squeeze setup, and it is not a high-conviction bear thesis either.

The Street picture is harder to read cleanly. Valuation data is stale — the most recent multiples are anchored to a May 2025 reference date, and with the stock having more than doubled since early this year, any price-based multiple should be treated as directionally illustrative at best. The ORTEX short score has eased to 36.3 from a recent peak near 38, sitting in the lower half of the broader universe — that ranking reflects the combination of modest SI, loose borrow, and a stock that has already moved hard. The June 2 stock score note flagged momentum at the 97th percentile of the peer group, with quality and growth materially weaker. That gap — very strong price action, fundamentally unresolved — remains the central tension heading into the print. Among correlated peers this week, GRRR gained 10% and BTQ surged 32%, while DUOT and DMRC both fell around 7%, underscoring how dispersed returns across the group have become.

Institutional positioning shows a few active hands building exposure. Fifthdelta added 8.85 million shares in the quarter to March, taking a 4.5% stake. Legal & General added 4.6 million shares over the same period. BlackRock added 2.5 million through to May. None of these are recent moves — the latest filings date to March 31 — but the direction of travel across multiple holders was accumulation into the rally, not distribution ahead of it.

The June 25 earnings date is now the only number that matters: the past two prints delivered a combined range from minus 12% to plus 31% on a five-day basis, and with the stock still elevated after a month-long run, the width of that distribution is what to watch next.