Methanex Corporation is trading at its worst level in months, down 10% on the week to CAD 65.51, as a major shareholder continues to buy aggressively into a falling stock — one of the more striking divergences in the Canadian chemicals space right now.
The standout story here is not the lending market or the short book. It is Sunil Jagwani, the company's 10% shareholder, who has spent most of June accumulating shares with remarkable persistence. Across a cluster of trades between May 22 and June 9, Jagwani bought over 400,000 shares across both TSX and US-listed shares, deploying more than CAD $21 million in aggregate over the 90-day window — with net purchases of 1.23 million shares worth roughly USD $75.7 million. These are not token insider purchases. A 10% holder adding materially to a position already at that scale signals genuine conviction. The trades came at prices ranging from roughly CAD $59 to the low $80s — well above where the stock sits today at $65.51. That means Jagwani is already underwater on a portion of the recent accumulation, yet there is no sign of retreat.
The lending market tells a story of minimal short-side pressure, which makes the price decline harder to attribute to bears piling in. Availability is exceptionally loose at 4,011% — meaning roughly 33.6 million shares remain available to borrow against only around 1.26 million currently shorted. Borrowing costs are negligible at 0.68%, and while that is up 33% on the week in percentage terms, the absolute level is trivial for anyone trying to maintain a short position. The ORTEX short score sits at 29.3 — a low reading that ranks in the 72nd percentile of the sector on a short-score basis, but does not signal a high-conviction short setup. Short interest itself has fallen 22% over the past month, back from around 1.6 million shares in early June to roughly 1.26 million. Bears have been covering into weakness, not pressing the position.
The Street angle is complicated by data vintage. The analyst consensus on record dates to January 2021 — more than five years ago — and the mean price target of approximately CAD $40 predates a period of significant share-price movement. That figure is almost certainly stale and should not be relied upon for current positioning analysis. What can be said is that the factor score picture is mixed: the stock ranks in just the 8th percentile for EPS surprise, meaning the company has consistently disappointed relative to estimates. The dividend score of 92 is eye-catching, though the dividend history on record runs only to mid-2022, and that data too should be treated as dated. EV/EBITDA has nudged higher over the past 30 days while the stock has fallen — a valuation-expansion pattern that typically reflects earnings estimates deteriorating faster than the share price corrects, or simply a re-rating lower in the denominator.
The peer context confirms this is a sector-wide move, not an isolated Methanex event. DOW fell 9.8% on the week and LYB dropped 8.6% — both highly correlated peers and both showing that commodity chemicals broadly are being repriced lower. OLN lost 7.6%. The divergence worth noting is at the fertiliser end of the space: CF gained 6% on the week, suggesting the selling pressure is concentrated in methanol and general-purpose petrochemicals rather than being a uniform chemicals-sector dump.
The next earnings date is July 28. After the April 29 print, the stock jumped 7.5% in a single session before giving back most of the gain over the following five days — a pattern that suggests short-term traders extracted a quick trade from the number but longer-term holders were not convinced. What to watch heading into that date is whether Jagwani's buying programme resumes near or below current levels, and whether short interest — already at a month-long low — ticks back up as the print approaches.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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