A major shareholder has been loading up on MX stock for two months straight — and short sellers have been quietly heading for the exit at the same time.
The most striking data point in this week's snapshot is the insider buying cluster. Sunil Jagwani, Methanex's 10% shareholder, spent the better part of May and June accumulating shares across multiple sessions. The purchases totalled well over 400,000 shares, with a 90-day net buy figure of roughly 1.23 million shares worth approximately USD 75.7 million. That kind of sustained, sizeable accumulation from a blockholder isn't noise — it reflects a deliberate positioning call at prices ranging from the high C$50s to the low C$80s.
The short-selling picture reinforces that tone. Shorts have been retreating sharply. The short book shrank by roughly 35% over the past month, from around 1.26 million shares in late June to just over 812,000 now. That's a meaningful covering wave. This week saw a modest 1.8% tick back up — but after a drawdown of that magnitude, the residual position looks light rather than threatening. Borrow conditions offer no sign of stress: availability is extraordinarily loose at roughly 7,200% (meaning lenders hold far more shares than have been borrowed), and the cost to borrow is a negligible 0.79%, even after a near-49% jump on the week. That week-on-week jump sounds alarming but is entirely consistent with routine noise at these ultra-low absolute levels. The ORTEX short score sits at 28 — well below the level that typically signals acute bearish pressure — and has been broadly stable all week.
The Street picture is harder to read cleanly. Analyst data in the snapshot is stale by several years, so no weight should be placed on the cited consensus or price target. What the valuation multiples do show — though these too are dated to mid-2025 — is a stock priced cheaply in commodity-chemical terms: a price-to-book below 1 and an EV/EBITDA around 4.8x. The factor scores add some useful texture: the dividend score ranks in the 98th percentile, the short score rank sits at the 81st percentile (meaning shorts here are relatively low versus the universe), and the sector score is a middling 40, reflecting the broader headwinds facing commodity chemicals. On the price side, MX is up nearly 19% over the past month to C$77.91, though it has given back about 1% this week. Correlated peers had a mixed week — DOW and LYB both gained around 1.5–3%, while OLN was hit hard, down more than 20% on the week after what appears to be a company-specific shock.
Institutional ownership tells a constructive story at the top of the register. M&G holds over 16% of shares and was flat last quarter. Wellington added more than 2.1 million shares in the most recent filing period, bringing its stake to 5.8%. Fidelity International added 1.6 million shares. KGH Ltd. appears as a new holder with 2.9 million shares. The one notable seller in the holder table is OCI N.V., which reduced its position by 4 million shares — a significant trim from a company that has historically had strategic ties to Methanex in the fertiliser and chemicals space.
Q2 results landed on July 28-29, with the stock moving just over 2.7% on the day — a modest positive reaction. The next scheduled earnings event is October 28. Between now and then, the variables worth watching are methanol contract pricing (the key earnings driver), whether Jagwani's buying resumes after the post-earnings pause, and whether the short book rebuilds from its current lows or continues to fade.
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