Lucid Group has whipsawed in the space of four days — up 33% on the week to $7.36 — while the borrow market simultaneously went from stressed to near-explosive, creating one of the more charged short-squeeze setups in the EV universe right now.
The borrow story is the week's defining development, and it has reversed sharply from where it stood on Tuesday. The prior notes documented cost to borrow collapsing from 148% in late June to 24% by July 14 — a relief valve that suggested the worst squeeze pressure had passed. That easing lasted precisely two sessions. CTB rocketed from 24% on July 14 to 264% on July 15 and then to 310% on July 16 — the highest level in the 30-day window and well above even the June 30 peak. The move is consistent with the availability data: the lending pool had briefly opened to 6.4% in mid-July, providing a small window for fresh shorts to enter. Those positions are now extremely expensive to hold. Availability has re-tightened to just 4.4% — fewer than one share available for every twenty already borrowed — as short interest climbed back to 20.5% of free float, up from 19.6% last week. The ORTEX short score is 85.7, back near its recent high of 86 from early July, and ranks in the bottom 1st percentile universe-wide on availability.
The price surge is driving the tension. Shorts who held through the 23% crash to $4.62 a week ago and stayed through the recovery now face a stock at $7.36 — a 59% move off recent lows. With availability near zero and CTB back above 300%, covering into strength is expensive. Options positioning has shifted modestly less defensive than usual: the put/call ratio has eased to 1.23, running below its 20-day average of 1.32 and about 1.5 standard deviations below it. That is a notable pivot — for weeks the PCR has been elevated and consistent with investors hedging against further downside. The move lower in the ratio, even as the stock has rallied hard, points to less incremental demand for puts, though the absolute level above 1.0 still reflects a structurally defensive posture.
The Street is not celebrating the rally. RBC Capital trimmed its target from $8 to $7 on July 13 — just as the stock was beginning its surge — while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. The mean analyst target is $8.30, now only 13% above the current price, a very narrow implied upside for a name carrying this much risk. The bear case is well-rehearsed: negative gross margins, production and delivery delays, suspended guidance, and no clear profitability timeline. The bull case rests on the midsize platform launch — promised to cut unit costs by up to 70% — PIF's 45% anchor stake, and Uber's recently disclosed 9.7% position built via a 24 million share addition. Those ownership stakes matter structurally: PIF and Uber together hold over 55% of the company, which compresses the freely tradeable float and makes the borrow dynamics even more acute when short interest is running at 20% of float.
Insider activity adds a mildly negative footnote. The acting CEO, acting CFO, and CFO all sold small amounts on June 5 at $5.68, and an earlier sale by the acting CEO in March at $10.27 is notable for the price level — both disposals came well above current pricing and were routine in size but consistent in direction. No insider buying is visible in the recent window.
Earnings land on August 4. The last three prints all resulted in negative next-day moves: -10.6%, -3.2%, and -7.5%, with multi-day weakness following in two of those three cases. The August print is therefore the next hard event that could either validate the rally or give renewed conviction to the existing short base, which remains large, expensive to maintain, and — given the CTB spike — under measurable pressure heading in.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open LCID on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
