AST SpaceMobile heads into the week with its most congested short positioning in months — and a borrow market that has effectively shut again just days after briefly reopening.
The covering that Thursday's note highlighted as a potential turning point has reversed. Short interest climbed back to 67.8 million shares by July 20 — 24.4% of the free float — up 7.6% on the week and 22% above where it began June. The ORTEX short score nudged higher to 70.5, its firmest reading of the past two weeks. Bears who trimmed in the July 10 window, when a five-million-share reduction briefly offered hope of a more sustained unwind, have rebuilt and then some. The monthly trajectory is now unambiguous: this is a position that has grown through a near-30% price collapse, and the week's data shows no capitulation.
The borrow market paints an even starker picture. Availability collapsed from 24.4% on July 16 back to just 4.3% on July 20 — matching the 52-week low recorded on the same date and representing a 76% tightening in a single week. That means fewer than one share remains available for every twenty-three already borrowed. Cost to borrow has risen nearly 46% on the week to 1.49%, nearly double the level from a month ago. The volatile back-and-forth in the lending pool — opening briefly to the mid-20% range before slamming shut again — is itself a signal of how much demand there is for fresh borrows each time supply appears. The availability factor score ranks in the 2nd percentile universe-wide, making this one of the tightest borrow situations in the market.
The Street's posture has fractured along the same fault lines. B. Riley's Mike Crawford upgraded ASTS to Buy on July 17, while Piper Sandler initiated with Overweight and a $100 target on July 16 — both within the past week and both arriving as the stock trades at $57.42, down 15% on the week. The consensus sits at hold, with three buys and six holds; no active sells are registered in the current panel, though Barclays maintains an Underweight with a $65 target that now sits only modestly above the current price. Price-to-book has compressed to 10.6x — down more than four turns over the past month — as the equity derating accelerates. The analyst recommendation factor score ranks in the 98th percentile, reflecting an unusually wide gap between what the Street says and where sentiment sits. Bulls point to the IP moat and 202% year-on-year sales growth; bears highlight persistent operating losses, the Piotroski F-score of just 3, and Starlink's structural head start.
Insider activity adds another layer to the story. Founder and CEO Abel Avellan sold 2.5 million shares on June 22 at $58.68 — a $146.7 million transaction — following a cluster of C-suite sales at much higher prices in late May when the stock was above $110. The CFO, COO, CTO, and President all sold in that window. Net insider sales over the past 90 days total over $448 million. The current price of $57.42 is now below the CEO's June sale price, a detail that will not be lost on the bear side of the ledger.
Options are the one corner of the market that is not flashing alarm. The put/call ratio at 0.48 is only marginally above its 20-day average of 0.46 — a half-standard-deviation move, entirely unremarkable. Despite a 15% weekly decline and a 29% monthly slide, options traders have not piled into downside protection. That divergence between the options market's relative calm and the acute tightening in the borrow pool is the setup heading into August 11 earnings, where the prior two quarterly prints both produced day-one declines followed by sharply divergent five-day outcomes.
The question that the August 11 print will answer — whether growing MNO revenue can begin to offset the constellation's capital appetite — is now being asked against the backdrop of the tightest borrow conditions of the past year, a short base that has survived a halving of the stock from its highs, and a CEO who sold near current levels just four weeks ago.
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