TLK heads into its July 29 earnings print with a sharp — and somewhat puzzling — spike in borrowing costs dominating the lending market picture.
The standout in the data is a cost-to-borrow that has quadrupled in a week, jumping from around 0.5% to 2.16%. That move looks dramatic, but context matters: availability remains extremely loose at 540%, meaning roughly five shares remain available to borrow for every one already lent out. That's well off the 52-week tightest reading of around 20%, and the borrow pool is nowhere near stressed. Short interest itself is a marginal factor here — the shares-short figure is small in absolute terms, with no float percentage calculable on the ADR, and the one-month increase of 21% in shares short happened in a single step around July 10 before flattening completely. The cost-to-borrow spike appears idiosyncratic rather than a sign of mounting short conviction. The stock itself has drifted sideways: down roughly 1.4% on the week and barely changed over the past month, closing Thursday at $14.42.
The more interesting tension heading into the print is between a supportive dividend yield and deteriorating momentum. Telkom Indonesia's dividend score ranks in the 83rd percentile of the ORTEX universe — the recent IDR 223 dividend announced in June reinforces the yield appeal that keeps this ADR on institutional watchlists. The state-controlled ownership structure is unusually dominant, with PT Danantara Asset Management holding over 51% of shares. Among active foreign holders, Lazard added nearly 492 million shares in the most recent reported quarter, while T. Rowe Price trimmed its position by 126 million shares — a divergence that captures the bull/bear split neatly. Bulls lean on value, with the EV/EBIT factor ranking in the 88th percentile and analyst consensus implying substantial upside from current levels (though available price target data predates 2023 and should be treated with caution). Bears point to persistently weak earnings momentum: the 30-day and 90-day EPS momentum scores sit in the 17th and 13th percentiles respectively, and the stock's ORTEX short score has drifted lower, now at 36.9 after touching 38.6 earlier in July.
The recent earnings reaction history adds one more note of caution. After the last four events, the stock fell on the day in every case, with the sharpest single-day drop reaching 5.4% following the June 2026 announcement. The five-day reactions were mixed — two recoveries, two further declines — suggesting the initial read on results has consistently disappointed relative to expectations, even when the medium-term picture stabilised.
The July 29 print will test whether Telkom's cost-discipline narrative and 5G monetization story can shift the earnings momentum picture, or whether the pattern of day-one selling reasserts itself once more.
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