TLK heads into its August 13 earnings report with the short-selling community at its most disengaged in months — and the stock still climbing.
The clearest shift since the last preview is how far the borrow market has loosened. Availability has expanded to 1,234%, up 40% on the week — meaning roughly twelve shares are now available for every one already lent out. That compares to a 52-week tightest reading near 20%, a level that briefly signalled acute short demand back in June. Cost-to-borrow has also retreated further, falling another 18% over the week to just 0.83%, after touching nearly 2% in late July. The short score has continued its steady slide, dropping to 33.2 from 35.9 ten days ago. Every part of the lending picture points toward shorts standing down, not building.
The price action reinforces that read. TLK closed at $15.10, up 3% on the week and 8% on the month — a meaningful acceleration from the $14.66 close described in last week's preview. The stock has now recaptured ground that was lost during the June volatility episode, when aggressive short demand briefly sent borrow costs into the double digits. That episode is firmly behind it. The short score decline, the availability expansion, and the price recovery are all moving in the same direction.
Factor scores add texture to the bull case. The dividend score ranks in the 88th percentile of the coverage universe, and TLK paid a cash dividend of IDR 223 in June — the highest in at least four years. The EPS surprise rank at the 79th percentile suggests the company has a consistent track record of beating estimates, though the analyst consensus data is too stale to draw meaningful conclusions about current Street positioning. Analyst recommendation divergence ranks in the 91st percentile, hinting the stock remains divisively rated, even if recent specific moves cannot be cited with confidence.
Past earnings reactions have been uneven. The most recent print — on July 31 — produced a 4.3% gain on the day and held most of that over five days. Before that, a June release saw a 5.4% one-day drop before recovering. The stock has shown it can move sharply in either direction. Thursday's print will test whether the operational momentum implied by the recovering share price and retreating short conviction translates into numbers that justify the move.
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