TLK arrives at its August 6 results with the lending market telling a markedly different story than it did a week ago — borrow costs have collapsed just as the stock finds its footing.
The cost-to-borrow reversal is the sharpest development since the last preview. What hit 2.16% last week has now fallen back to just over 1%, a drop of more than 50% in seven days. More striking still is what happened in mid-to-late June: the CTB briefly touched 25% on June 22 and nearly 50% on June 19, levels that implied acute demand for shorts. That episode has fully unwound. Availability has swung the other way — now running at 879%, meaning roughly nine shares remain available to borrow for every one already lent out. That's the loosest the pool has been in months, up from a 52-week tightest reading near 20%. Shorts are not pressing here. The short score has also been drifting lower, from around 38.7 in late July to 34.6 now, suggesting declining short conviction rather than a build.
The stock itself has recovered quietly. TLK closed July at $14.66, up roughly 9% on the month and adding about 1.7% on the week — a meaningful improvement from the sideways drift described in the prior preview. The momentum picture has at least stabilised, even if the factor scores remain soft: EPS momentum ranks in the 19th percentile over 30 days and the 12th over 90 days. The dividend score, however, is the standout at the 83rd percentile, and the most recent declared dividend — 223 IDR per share, announced in June — reinforces the income angle that institutional holders appear to value. PT Danantara Asset Management holds more than half the company outright, and Lazard added nearly 492 million shares as of the latest reporting period.
Analyst data is too stale to carry weight here — the most recent formal consensus dates to late 2022 — so the framing is less about Street expectations and more about what the operating environment has delivered. Recent earnings events have been consistently negative on the day: the last four prints each produced a first-day decline ranging from 0.5% to 5.4%, though the five-day reactions have been mixed, with some modest recoveries following the initial drops.
The August 6 print is therefore a test of whether Telkom Indonesia's operational resilience — particularly its free cash flow generation and dividend capacity — can offset the persistent drag from weak EPS momentum and the broader headwinds facing Indonesian state-owned enterprises.
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