Bears, Mega-Caps, and a PCE Surprise

Macro: Inflation Cools, Fed Holds

Core PCE inflation came in at just 0.1% month-on-month in June. That is the Fed's preferred price gauge — and it is running cold. Futures rallied on the print. AAPL and AMZN both report after the close today. With a combined market cap near $8 trillion on the line, this is the biggest earnings day of the season. META and MSFT are also in focus as investors assess AI spending plans.

AI Rout Rattles Chips

The AI sell-off is still reverberating. Leopold Aschenbrenner's $20 billion AI hedge fund is raising fresh cash after getting caught in the rout. NVDA remains at the centre of the storm. Options flow on MU is running heavily negative — the stock is up 187% year-to-date, and longs are buying put protection. Short sellers are not backing off WOLF either. Short interest on Wolfspeed hit 119% of free float despite a 162% three-month price surge.

Europe: Fed Rates at 19-Year High

US borrowing costs hit a 19-year high as the Fed held rates. Investors are worried an Iran war could reignite inflation. Shell posted its second-highest profits ever as traders cashed in on Iran supply disruption. Chinese equities are on track for their worst month in a decade. European defence stocks rallied after Ukraine ratified a €105 billion EU loan deal.

Insiders Sell, Short Sellers Pile In

General Motors CEO Mary Barra filed a $4.7 million share sale yesterday — joined by two other GM executives on the same day. CHWY short interest jumped 14 points in seven days to 80% of free float. Bears are clearly betting the pet retail rally has peaked. HTZ also sits at 84% short interest. Car rental names are under sustained pressure.