OXY heads into its August 5 earnings report having gained 17.5% in a month, while short sellers quietly retreat and options traders lean constructively.
The clearest signal from the lending market is indifference. Availability is vast — more than 8,800% — meaning shares to borrow are essentially unlimited relative to the amount currently shorted. Cost to borrow sits near 0.39%, barely moving the needle despite a modest 35% week-on-week rise. Short interest reinforces the relaxed tone: at 2.4% of the float, it has fallen roughly 27% over the past month and 11% in the past week alone. There is no meaningful short-side pressure building into this print. Options confirm the bullish tilt. The put/call ratio has slipped to 0.47, now about 1.2 standard deviations below its 20-day average — close to the lowest reading of the past year at 0.44. Call demand is running ahead of puts, suggesting options traders are leaning toward upside rather than hedging against disappointment.
The analyst community has been somewhat divided. Evercore ISI made the most decisive move recently, upgrading OXY all the way from Underperform to Outperform on July 8 and lifting its target to $65. That stands in contrast to Citigroup, which trimmed its target to $60 on July 17 while holding Neutral, and Morgan Stanley, which cut to $68 late in June while staying Equal-Weight. The consensus mean target rests near $64.50, roughly 13% above the current $57.07. Bulls point to OXY's Permian Basin depth — over 4,600 gross locations remaining — and its ongoing debt reduction. Bears flag the sensitivity of those financials to oil price swings, the long-tail risk of its international portfolio, and questions about whether efficiency gains are structurally durable. OXY's EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 96th percentile, signalling a strong history of beating estimates, though forward EPS growth ranks in just the 23rd percentile as the year-on-year comparison looks unflattering. The P/E has expanded materially — up more than 2.6 points over the past month — tracking the stock's sharp monthly re-rating.
Ownership adds an important layer of context. Berkshire Hathaway holds a 26.6% stake and has not changed that position since the March filing period, making it the dominant anchor. Dodge & Cox and BlackRock have each added modestly in recent months. On the insider side, the picture is mixed at the top. CEO Vicki Hollub sold roughly $4.4 million worth of stock in June, though the pattern of significance scores attached to those trades is low. More constructively, another executive with the President/CEO title, Richard Jackson, bought nearly $250,000 worth of shares at $52.38 on June 23 — below where the stock now trades. The 90-day net insider position is positive in shares terms, though dominated by the Hollub sales in value. Past earnings reactions offer a cautionary note: the three most recent prints each triggered a meaningful one-day decline, ranging from roughly 4% to over 9%, with the five-day aftermath also negative in two of those three cases.
The August 5 print will test whether OXY's month-long re-rating — built on Permian confidence and receding short interest — can survive contact with actual Q2 numbers, or whether the pattern of post-earnings selling reasserts itself at a higher share price.
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