Tether's Steady Buying Sets the Stage for GROY's Earnings

GROY heads into its August 6 earnings call with an unusual backstory: its biggest recent buyer is Tether Holdings, not a traditional gold fund.

Tether has bought shares on at least ten separate occasions since May, accumulating roughly 2.77 million net shares worth over $8 million in the past 90 days alone. The most recent cluster — four purchases across July 27-30 at prices between $2.60 and $2.65 — came just as the stock was pushing higher. GROY closed at $2.89 on August 5, up 7.4% on the day and nearly 11% on the week. That rally tracks the broader precious metals sector, where close peers including GOLD and EDR posted comparable single-day gains of 7.7% and 11.5% respectively. Tether, now owning 13.1% of outstanding shares, is building a position well below the consensus analyst target of $5.21 — a gap that represents roughly 80% implied upside from current levels.

Short interest tells a low-pressure story heading into the print. Bears hold about 4.4% of the free float — meaningful but not extreme — and that position has been slowly unwinding over the past month, down nearly 6% from 30 days ago even as it crept up slightly this week. Borrow conditions are relaxed: the cost to borrow is essentially zero at 0.67%, and share availability is ample, with roughly 2.25 shares available for every one already lent out. That's well off the tightest reading of the past year, when availability dropped below 10%. Options positioning reinforces the bullish lean. The put/call ratio has collapsed to near its 52-week low at 0.06, roughly a standard deviation below the 20-day average of 0.076 — call activity is dominating, and traders are not hedging into the release.

The analyst picture is broadly constructive but carries caveats. Coverage remains Buy-tilted: HC Wainwright holds a Buy with a $7.75 target, Canaccord upgraded to Buy in April, and Scotiabank kept its Sector Outperform in July while trimming the target modestly from $6.00 to $5.75. All targets sit well above the current price, but none are from bellwether firms with broad market-moving weight. The bull case rests on surging gold prices — realized prices hit $3,279 per ounce last quarter, up 40% year-over-year — and the ramp-up of key assets like Côté Gold and Borborema. Bears point to persistent net losses ($0.8M last quarter on $3.8M revenue) and the company's continued reliance on a single operating segment as gold prices do all the heavy lifting. The forward EPS growth score ranks in the 92nd percentile across the universe, but quality and value scores remain subdued, reflecting negative free cash flow and the absence of a positive earnings yield.

The print will test whether GROY's royalty ramp is translating into meaningful revenue acceleration — or whether another quarter of thin earnings and elusive profitability challenges the premium that gold's run has lent the stock.