Casey's Earnings Miss Triggers Target Cuts, Short Sellers Respond

Casey's General Stores posted a sharply disappointing fiscal Q1. The fallout has been swift — analysts slashed price targets by as much as $200 and the stock dropped over 14% on the day of the print. It has lost 17% on the week and 27% over the past month, closing at $627.64.

Analysts Cut Deep

The target reductions are the defining story here. Five firms moved within 48 hours of the results.

UBS maintained Neutral but dropped its target from $925 to $720 — a $205 cut. Keybanc kept Overweight but trimmed from $970 to $780. Wells Fargo held Overweight and cut from $960 to $750. JP Morgan had already moved first, lowering its Neutral target from $975 to $833 on September 3.

Against that backdrop, Raymond James upgraded the stock. Analyst Bobby Griffin moved from Market Perform to Outperform, setting a fresh $750 target. Stephens & Co. reiterated Overweight at $975, the only firm holding an unchanged target near prior levels.

The consensus now sits at Hold. The mean price target is $817 — still 30% above Thursday's close, but that gap reflects how far the stock has fallen rather than renewed analyst conviction.

Short Interest Jumps

Prior ORTEX articles noted shorts were covering through August, with SI falling to 2.9% of the free float by early September. That has now reversed. Short interest rose 33% in a single session on September 10, jumping to 3.85% of the free float. That is the highest reading in at least a month.

The borrow market, however, remains entirely accommodating. Availability stands at 1,722% — more than 17 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. Cost to borrow is 0.44%. There is no squeeze dynamic here. The new short positioning is discretionary, not forced.

Options Traders Lean the Other Way

Despite the short-side move, options traders are positioned in the opposite direction. The put/call ratio hit 0.72 on September 10 — a 52-week low, and 3.4 standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 0.98. Call volume is dominating at a level that is historically extreme for this stock.

That creates an unusual divergence. Short sellers added exposure on the earnings weakness. Options traders simultaneously loaded up on calls.

Data Summary

• Price: $627.64, down 17% on the week, down 27% on the month
• Short Interest: 3.85% of free float, up 33% in one session; up from ~2.9% pre-earnings
• Borrow availability: 1,722% — ample supply, cost to borrow 0.44%
• Put/call ratio: 0.72, a 52-week low and 3.4 standard deviations below the 20-day mean
• Analyst consensus: Hold; mean target $817, range $720 (UBS) to $975 (Stephens)
• Next earnings: December 9