BlackBerry enters its September 24 earnings date with an unusual tension at its core: short sellers have built positions aggressively over the past month while the stock itself has barely moved this week, sitting at CAD 10.85 — up just 0.4% on the week but down 12% over the past month.
The short interest story is the week's most interesting data point, though not for the reason the headline number suggests. At 2.8% of the free float, the absolute level remains low — that isn't where the tension lies. What stands out is the trajectory. Short interest has climbed roughly 29% over the past 30 days, from around 12.7 million shares to 16.3 million. That build happened in two visible steps: positions jumped sharply in mid-August and again around September 3, before stabilising this week with a marginal 0.1% reduction. The borrow market tells a calmer story. Availability is wide open at 755%, meaning there are roughly seven-and-a-half shares available for every one already borrowed — the lending pool is not under any strain. Cost to borrow has also fallen nearly 30% over the week to just 0.47%, a very cheap rate to maintain a short. Shorts are building into a market that makes it easy to do so.
The activist register adds a layer of context that's genuinely newsworthy. Prem Watsa — the Fairfax Financial founder who has long been among BlackBerry's most prominent backers — filed a Schedule 13D/A in May, revealing his stake had fallen from 6.1% to 4.5%. That drop below 5% is significant: a 13D/A amendment from an activist-flagged holder cutting his position is one of the more meaningful insider signals on any register. Separately, BlackRock trimmed from 5.0% to 4.4% per its July filing. Neither move constitutes a wholesale exit, but both point in the same direction ahead of a quarterly print. (The standard caveat applies: 13D/G filings are event-driven around the 5% threshold and holders dropping below may not file again.)
Insider activity from July reinforces that picture. The CEO of BlackBerry's Secure Communications division, John Giamatteo, sold over 152,000 shares across July 9 transactions — netting roughly CAD 1.7 million at prices between CAD 10.92 and CAD 11.45. The CFO and CLO also sold in the same window. None of the transactions appear to have been under 10b5-1 pre-arranged plans. The net insider position over the past 90 days runs to a negative 385,858 shares worth approximately USD 4.4 million, with no offsetting purchases visible in the data. Selling at these levels, with the stock off 12% over the month, is a detail worth noting.
Valuation gives the bulls something to work with but not without caveats. The P/E multiple has compressed materially — down more than 5.5 points over 30 days to around 36x — and EV/EBITDA is running near 29.6x. The stock has been a remarkable performer on a longer horizon, roughly doubling year-to-date by some measures, with momentum scores that have been running near the top of the universe. Peers are mostly moving the other way this week: GRRR fell 11% over the past seven days, CRNC dropped 2.8%, and CDNS slipped 3.6%, while FTNT and OSPN bucked the trend with gains of 9% and 11% respectively. BlackBerry's near-flat week looks like a pause rather than leadership.
The earnings history sharpens the picture heading into September 24. The most recent print, on June 25, produced a 1-day move of +31.6% and a 5-day move of +33.1% — an outsized reaction by any measure, and likely the event that attracted the short interest build now sitting on the books. The question for next week is whether that kind of post-earnings pop is repeatable, or whether the 29% short build and the executive selling reflect a more cautious read on what the guidance cycle can deliver from here.
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