Bernstein Bucks the Crowd on Okta

Analysts are divided on OKTA after its earnings-driven surge. The split is sharp — and the short interest data adds a wrinkle.

The Bernstein Dissent

Bernstein's Peter Weed downgraded Okta to Market Perform on Wednesday. That alone is noteworthy. But he simultaneously raised his price target 22% to $174 — well below where the stock now trades at $188.

The message is clear: the stock ran past fair value. BTIG and Wells Fargo disagree. BTIG's Gray Powell lifted his target to $219, maintaining Buy. Wells Fargo raised its Overweight target to $200. The consensus rating remains Buy, with 25 buy ratings against 10 holds.

The divergence matters. Bernstein is essentially saying the post-earnings rally went too far. The bulls say there's still 16% upside to BTIG's target. The stock is caught in the middle.

Shorts Piling In Post-Earnings

SI hit 4.82% of free float as of September 16. That's up 26% in one week — roughly 1.7 million additional shares sold short since September 9.

The timing is telling. Okta's August 26 earnings triggered a 32% single-day move. Short interest was running near 6.4 million shares ahead of that print. It dropped as the stock surged, then climbed sharply again this week as the stock held near $188.

This looks like fresh positioning against the rally — not a residual overhang.

Borrow Market Stays Wide Open

Despite the jump in short selling, the borrow market is not stressed. Availability stands at 2,199% — more than 105 million shares remain lendable against roughly 8.1 million currently borrowed. Cost to borrow sits at just 0.42%, though it has risen 31% over the past week.

The lending pool is loose. Shorts are not fighting over scarce inventory. That limits the risk of a mechanical squeeze driven by borrow constraints.

What to Watch

The Bernstein downgrade at $174 sets a clear reference point. OKTA trades at a trailing P/E of 43.9 and EV/EBITDA of 32.4 — both up sharply over the past month as the stock ran. Next earnings are not until December 2. Between now and then, watch whether the analyst consensus shifts further toward Hold, and whether short interest continues to build at this pace.

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Data summary

• SI % FF: 4.82% (as of Sep 16), +26% over 1 week
• Price: $188.12, +8.9% over 1 week, +27.6% over 1 month
• Availability: 2,199% — ample borrow supply
• CTB: 0.42%, +31% week-on-week
• Analyst consensus: Buy (25 buy / 10 hold); mean target $184.44
• Bernstein: downgrade to Market Perform, target raised to $174
• BTIG: Buy maintained, target raised to $219
• Next earnings: December 2, 2026