TLK, Indonesia's state-controlled telecom giant, approaches its September 30 earnings release down 12% over the past month and sitting at $13.34 — yet the short-selling community is far from pressing the advantage.
The lending market tells a story of comfort rather than conviction. Borrow availability runs at roughly 725%, meaning shares available to borrow dwarf those already borrowed by more than seven times. That is well within a normal range and has actually loosened over the past week. Cost to borrow has eased about 20% over the same period to under 0.81% — a level that signals no meaningful demand for new short exposure. Short interest has ticked up about 7% on the week to roughly 2.7 million shares, but that recent nudge follows a steady decline through September and a sharper drop in August. Overall, the borrow market is loose, costs are low, and the short-selling setup looks opportunistic rather than structured.
The bull and bear debate on TLK is therefore less about short pressure and more about whether the market's re-rating of the stock is justified. TLK ranks in the 77th percentile on EPS surprise — meaning it has a solid track record of beating estimates — and scores an 81st-percentile dividend rank, keeping income-oriented holders anchored. On the other side, EPS momentum has deteriorated sharply: the 30-day reading sits in the 37th percentile and the 90-day in the 25th, pointing to downward estimate revisions that have weighed on the stock well ahead of the print. Analyst data is too stale to draw from directly — the most recent consensus dates to late 2022 — but a June 2026 stock-score note flagged analyst targets implying roughly 41% upside to then-current prices, a gap that suggests the Street has not abandoned constructive views even as momentum faded.
Ownership is dominated by PT Danantara Asset Management, which holds 51.8% of shares, reflecting the company's status as a state enterprise. Among international allocators, Harding Loevner cut its stake by around 91 million shares as of June 30 — a meaningful trim. Meanwhile Lazard, Vanguard's institutional arm, and JP Morgan Asset Management all added modestly in recent months, suggesting the selloff has attracted some incremental buying rather than broad-based exit. Past earnings prints have been low-drama: the last four events produced one-day moves ranging from -5.4% to +4.3%, with five-day follow-through generally constructive.
The September 30 print is therefore a test of whether the EPS momentum deterioration visible in forward estimates has actually fed through to the reported numbers — or whether TLK's track record of beating expectations reasserts itself despite a difficult macro backdrop for Indonesian equities.
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