MOD Options Signal Contrarian Bet After 11.6% Crash

Why this matters: MOD dropped 11.6% in a single session. Short sellers added positions into the weakness. Yet the options market is pointing the other way — call buying has surged to levels rarely seen in the past year.

Calls Flood In After the Selloff

The put-call ratio collapsed to 0.56 on September 28. That is 2.6 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.72. The 52-week low sits at 0.26, so there is room to move lower still — but the current reading is an abrupt departure from recent norms.

For context, the PCR sat above 0.73 for most of September before the drop. The single-session crash appears to have triggered aggressive call buying, not defensive put-loading.

Short Sellers Adding Into Weakness

The options signal sits against a backdrop of growing short positions. Short interest climbed 12.4% over the past week to 6.7% of free float. That is a meaningful move in a short window. Over 30 days the rise is more modest at 3.1%, suggesting the bulk of new shorting happened around — or just after — the selloff.

The borrow market tells a different story from the short interest trend. Availability stands at 1,247% — extremely loose. There are roughly 22.7 million shares available to borrow against 3.5 million currently shorted. Cost to borrow has also fallen sharply, down 42% week-on-week to 0.28%. That combination makes shorting cheap and easy right now.

Analysts Hold Their Ground — But Targets Are Well Above the Current Price

Analysts have not rushed to revise following the drop. The most recent action was Keybanc reiterating Overweight with a $280 target on September 2. The consensus mean target sits at $310. Against a close of $175, that implies roughly 77% upside to the average analyst estimate.

Both Keybanc and B. Riley lowered targets in July after the prior quarter — Keybanc cut from $370 to $280, B. Riley from $340 to $305 — but neither abandoned their bullish stance. T. Rowe Price added 523,680 shares as of September 1, the most notable institutional build among top holders.

Earnings are next due October 29.

Data Summary

• Price: $175.04, down 11.6% on the day and 11.4% on the week
• Put-call ratio: 0.56 — 2.6 standard deviations below 20-day mean of 0.72
• Short interest: 6.7% of free float, up 12.4% week-on-week
• Borrow availability: 1,247% — loose, with 22.7M shares available
• Cost to borrow: 0.28%, down 42% week-on-week
• ORTEX short score: 43.1, up from 39.1 a week ago
• Analyst mean target: $310.29 (Keybanc $280 Overweight; B. Riley $305 Buy)
• Next earnings: October 29, 2026