CDR has spent the past week drifting quietly higher, up 0.5% on the week and 1.4% on Tuesday alone to close at PLN 248.70, while the market around it sends mixed signals that are worth unpacking before the November 24 earnings print.
The lending market tells a story of low conviction on the bear side. Availability is running at 580%, meaning there are nearly six shares available to borrow for every one already shorted. That is comfortably above the 52-week tightest reading of 215%, and availability has actually loosened over the past week, up around 3%. Cost to borrow has edged up from 0.75% to 0.84% over the past month but remains firmly in the "low" category, a signal that short sellers are not scrambling to establish or maintain positions. The short score sits at 70.7, high in absolute terms and creeping up incrementally through the week, but the generous availability says this reflects a structurally elevated short base rather than any fresh squeeze risk.
That structurally elevated base is itself the story. A recent note on the stock cited short interest at 22% of the float. On those numbers, the short score makes sense, but the borrow market shows no signs of stress: shorts are comfortable, covered, and not paying up. The ORTEX short score rank of 6 out of 100 (lower is more shorted) confirms CDR sits deep in the high-short-interest bucket relative to global peers, while the days-to-cover rank at 23 suggests it would take some time for a large unwind. That combination, heavy short positioning with ample borrow supply, is a stable equilibrium rather than a charged setup.
On valuation, the stock is not cheap. The trailing PE has moved up sharply over the past month, expanding roughly 6 points to 30.9x, and EV/EBITDA has risen 4.3 points to 18.6x over the same period. The price-to-book is at 5.9x. The analyst consensus price target is PLN 246.19, essentially flat to the current price of PLN 248.70, which suggests the Street sees the stock as roughly fairly valued at these levels. EPS momentum is weak on both the 30-day and 90-day views (ranking 6th and 17th percentile respectively), though the forward earnings growth score is strong at the 74th percentile, reflecting the market's expectation of a substantial recovery in profitability. The EPS surprise factor at the 81st percentile is notable: the company has a recent history of coming in ahead of estimates.
Ownership is concentrated at the founder level. Marcin Iwinski holds 12.9% and Michal Kicinski 10.0%, with the last disclosed insider trade being a sale by Iwinski of 223,520 shares in January 2025 at PLN 216.24. That trade is now over 600 days old, and no subsequent insider activity has been recorded in the data, making it a historical data point rather than a current signal. The most recent institutional moves of note are BlackRock adding 150,803 shares through August and Norges Bank's last reported position showing a large increase. Polish pension funds including Nationale-Nederlanden and PZU collectively account for a meaningful share of the register.
On the alt data side, CDR's Steam player count series from Valve Corporation is tracked daily but has not been measured to lead the company's reported figures. The dataset provides colour on engagement but cannot be treated as a leading indicator for the November print.
The one earnings reaction in the dataset, from the September 2 release, showed a muted move of minus 0.7% on the day and minus 0.9% over five days, a quiet response that gives neither bulls nor bears strong historical evidence to anchor expectations. With the next print 55 days away, the key question heading into Q4 is whether expanding valuation multiples and a high short base can coexist with a Street consensus that sees essentially no further upside from current levels.
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