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MGM Resorts International heads into its October 28 earnings with a striking disconnect: shorts are piling in at the fastest pace in months while options traders are growing more, not less, bullish.
Short positioning has turned meaningfully more aggressive. Short interest climbed 13% in a single session on October 6, pushing the total to 7.9% of free float, up from around 6.1% a month ago, a 30% rise in four weeks. That is the sharpest build seen over the period in the history data. Yet the borrow market tells a looser story. Availability has tightened sharply from over 1,000% earlier in the period to 727% now, a 40% drop on the week, which means the lending pool is seeing more activity. Cost to borrow remains low at 0.49%, up 16% on the week but still well within easy-borrow territory. The short score has climbed from 52.4 on September 23 to 58.9 on October 6, its highest reading in the sample window, signalling that the aggregate pressure from shorts is building even if the borrow itself is not yet squeezed.
Options traders are pulling in the opposite direction. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.42, nearly a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.53, and within touching distance of its 52-week low of 0.41. That is the most call-heavy options positioning MGM has seen all year. Through September, the PCR sat consistently in the 0.62-to-0.68 range. The shift downward is sharp and recent, beginning around September 21 and accelerating into October. Shorts are adding while call buyers are piling in, and both sides cannot be right into the October 28 print.
The analyst community is cautious rather than capitulating. Macquarie cut its price target from $55 to $48 on October 7 while holding its Outperform rating, the most recent action from a firm that had raised the target just two months earlier. UBS moved its target down to $46 from $50 in September, maintaining Neutral. Both bulls and bears on the Street have a clear story. The bull case centres on EBITDAR growth of 31% year-on-year, revenue up 21%, and digital revenue surging 35%, with strong forward bookings. The bear case points to non-luxury Las Vegas Strip weakness, declining average daily rates, and management's own downward revisions to 2025 and 2026 EBITDAR estimates. The consensus is Hold, with a mean price target around $49, implying roughly 60% upside to the current price of $30.54. EPS surprise ranks in the 92nd percentile of the universe, a consistently positive track record at the print. Forward EPS direction scores in the 70th percentile. Against that, EV/EBIT scores in the 14th percentile, meaning valuation relative to operating earnings is elevated versus peers.
The activist angle adds a further layer of complexity. People Incorporated holds 26.5% of the company on a Schedule 13D, an activist filing, and raised its stake from 26.1% as recently as September 24. That concentrated ownership is the most structurally distinctive feature of MGM's register. Davis Selected Advisers holds a further 9.5%, giving two holders combined control of more than 36%. The standard caveat applies: 13D/G positions are event-driven disclosures around the 5% threshold, and figures are as last disclosed. Standard institutional names, BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, have been adding modestly and hold roughly 13% combined.
The alt data adds one specific note worth flagging. Massachusetts casino sportsbook handle fell 49% against August of last year and has now declined for four consecutive months, per state gaming regulator data. MGM has material Massachusetts exposure. The dataset has not been measured as a leading indicator of MGM's reported revenue, so no directional inference for the print is warranted. But the streak is the longest in the data and the magnitude is notable context for the Las Vegas Strip softness already flagged by analysts.
The last earnings print on July 29 produced a 1.2% next-day decline and a 3.7% drop over the five days following. With the stock already down 26% over the past month and the short score at a near-term high, the October 28 release is the next hard test of whether the short builders or the call buyers read the setup correctly.
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