Stories are generated from ORTEX data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. How we publish
RACE heads into earnings season with its short score plateauing, borrow conditions loosening further, and analysts holding a firm buy consensus, leaving the stock's modest one-week decline looking more like sector noise than a change in underlying sentiment.
The short score that drove last week's note has stopped climbing. After rising from 35.9 on September 16 to a peak near 42.0 early in the week, it has eased back to 40.8 by October 6, the first sustained reversal in that run. The score still ranks in the 35th percentile of the ORTEX universe, well below levels that would signal genuine bear conviction, and the deceleration removes the main tension flagged seven days ago. Borrow conditions have moved in the same direction: availability has risen from roughly 784% a week ago to 917% now, meaning there are more than nine shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow has eased to 0.88%, down about 8% on the week and back near its lowest levels of the past two months. The lending market is not just relaxed, it is the most relaxed it has been in the available 30-day window.
The Street remains constructive. Eight analysts carry buy ratings, with no sells on the register, and a mean price target of EUR 387.86 against a current price of EUR 345.25. That implies roughly 12% upside from here on the consensus view. Valuation is unambiguously premium: the trailing price-to-earnings multiple runs near 32x and price-to-book is above 12x. The EV/EBITDA of 19.3 has crept up about 0.07 points over the past 30 days, a gentle drift rather than a re-rating. Factor scores reflect the premium positioning, EPS surprise ranks in the 68th percentile and the dividend score is 65, but the value rank is only 16, confirming the Street prices Ferrari as a quality compounder rather than a cheap cyclical.
The ownership picture carries one genuinely notable item. Exor N.V., the Agnelli family vehicle, filed a Schedule 13D amendment in January disclosing its stake had fallen to 21.3% from 31.8% previously. That reduction of more than a third represents a material change to Ferrari's anchor shareholder structure. As a 13D filer, Exor retains activist-eligible standing on the register, but the direction of travel has been toward concentration rather than engagement. The 13D/G disclosure framework means stakes are as last filed, and positions can change without a further filing once a holder drops below the 5% threshold. BlackRock, meanwhile, has added aggressively, with last-reported holdings near 3.6% of shares after a change of more than 6.6 million shares, making it the most active institutional buyer in the visible data.
Ferrari's last two earnings events are worth keeping in mind as the November 3 print approaches. The Q2 2026 release in late July barely moved the stock on the day, up just 0.09%, but the stock gained nearly 4.7% over the following five sessions. The May 2026 print went the other way, down 1.7% on the day and off 3.8% across the week. Neither reaction was dramatic by the standards of a EUR 60 billion luxury franchise, which itself speaks to how well-owned and well-understood the earnings cadence is. A recent note flagged third-quarter revenue of EUR 1.46 billion with raised full-year guidance, which provides the narrative backdrop going into the November release.
The next focal point is whether the short score's reversal holds, a further drop below 40 would close out the bear-tilt story that opened two weeks ago, and how BlackRock's continued accumulation sits alongside Exor's gradual exit as the two largest forces shaping Ferrari's float ahead of Q3 results.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open RACE on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
