UBS and Goldman Cut MBLY Targets as Earnings Loom

Short interest has come in slightly from recent highs but remains elevated at 18.5% of free float, roughly 39.9 million shares. The month-over-month move is still up 7.7%, meaning the rebuild that accelerated through September is only partially reversing. Borrow conditions offer no squeeze pressure. Availability has loosened materially this week, now running at 649% of short interest compared with around 413% a week ago, and the cost to borrow has dropped 31% over the same period to just 0.41%. With that much supply in the lending pool, shorts face no friction holding positions into earnings. The ORTEX short score has also eased slightly, from around 65 a week ago to 61.9 today, consistent with the modest reduction in shares short rather than a change in direction. Options positioning is unremarkable: the put/call ratio at 0.52 is roughly in line with its 20-day average, with a z-score near zero. Neither the options market nor the lending market is signalling any unusual pre-earnings stress in either direction.

The ownership picture adds an important structural layer. Intel holds 76% of shares, leaving a small public float against which the 18.5% short interest figure is measured. CEO Amnon Shashua filed a Schedule 13D in February 2026, disclosing a 7.3% stake and activist-level intent on a company where he is also the top executive, a structurally unusual situation worth monitoring. At the board level, two directors made open-market purchases in late July and early August, 12,360 shares at $7.98 and 11,841 shares at $8.46 respectively, both small in dollar terms but notable as discretionary purchases near current price levels rather than compensation grants. The 90-day net insider position is a modest $198,808 of open-market buying, a fraction of the grant activity but directionally positive. The Schedule 13D/G register carries the standard caveat: stakes are as last disclosed around the 5% threshold, and holders dropping below 5% may not file again.

Valuation offers limited support at this price. Price-to-book has compressed to 0.75 times, down more than 10% over the past 30 days. EV/EBITDA has drifted to 8.5 times. The PE of 15.2 times is not stretched, but Mobileye is generating a return on assets that is still negative, limiting value arguments. The 90-day forward EPS momentum factor ranks in the 97th percentile, meaning analysts have raised forward estimates sharply over that window, a bullish data point that sits in direct tension with the wave of price target reductions. The short score rank places the stock in the bottom decile of its universe, flagging persistent bearish positioning relative to peers. Correlated names have traded better on the week: HSAI gained 4.8%, BWA added 4.0%, and QS edged up 1.3%, while MBLY slipped 1.3%.

With the October 22 print 15 days away, the key question is whether the Street's relentless target compression has now reached a floor. The most recent earnings reaction, from the July 23 report, was an 8.3% single-day decline and a 10% loss over the following five sessions, a pattern that gives shorts no particular reason to cover ahead of the number.