Stories are generated from ORTEX data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. How we publish
GRPN sits at one of the most contested intersections in small-cap retail: a stock with 31% of its float sold short, an active 13D filer on the register, and options traders positioned more bullishly than at almost any point in the past year.
The short positioning remains extreme in absolute terms, but the direction of travel has shifted. Short interest has pulled back roughly 2.3% over the past week to 31.4% of the free float, and is down from a higher base in late September when the share count topped 13 million. The ORTEX short score holds at 80.8, placing GRPN in the 2nd percentile on that factor across the full universe. What has changed more dramatically is the borrow market. Availability has moved from roughly 8% two weeks ago to 21% now. That is still tight territory, but a meaningful loosening from the near-zero readings that persisted through mid-September, when the stock briefly hit 100% utilisation and availability fell to 0.37%. Cost to borrow has also dropped sharply, falling 43% over the past week to 1.34%, its lowest in the 30-day window. The lending market is less panicked than the headline short figure implies.
Options positioning tells a different story from the shorts entirely. The put/call ratio of 0.28 is near its 52-week low of 0.2798, well below its 20-day mean and about 1.1 standard deviations beneath it. The 52-week high stands at 0.857. Calls dominate the options book by a ratio of more than 3.5 to 1, an unusually bullish skew for a name this heavily shorted. The combination of easing borrow costs, rising availability, and call-heavy options positioning suggests the short-versus-long tension here is live, not settled.
The Street remains sharply divided. Goldman Sachs maintained its Sell rating in May, raising its target to $13 from $10 after an earlier cut from $17 to $10 in March. Both moves kept the firm well below where the stock is trading at $18.84. Bulls at Northland and Roth have targets in the $40s, citing bookings growth and cash conversion. The bear case rests on guidance that called for billings to fall 2.5% to 5% and revenue to drop 5% to 7.5%, alongside rising marketing and SG&A costs. The mean analyst target of $28.67 implies roughly 52% upside to the current price, though the dispersion between the $13 Sell target and the $44 to $47 Buy targets makes that average almost meaningless as a signal. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed, down about half a point over the past 30 days to 8.5x, and the PE sits at 8.8x. The factor score picture is consistent with the short pressure: GRPN ranks in the 2nd percentile on utilisation and 3rd on the short score, but sits at the 50th percentile on analyst recommendation and sector score.
The ownership register adds another layer. Dusan Senkypl has filed a Schedule 13D, the activist classification, most recently in August 2026, disclosing a 32% stake, down from 34.1% in the prior filing. That is the single most newsworthy fact in the register: a 13D filer with nearly a third of the company is explicitly on the activist track. Pale Fire Capital holds a further 25% as of August. Those two holders alone account for roughly 57% of shares. Millennium Management disclosed a fresh 5% stake in August 2026. Divisadero Street added over 1.4 million shares in its most recent filing period. With this much of the register concentrated among active and activist holders, the float available to short sellers is structurally constrained, which goes some way to explaining why 31% short interest generates such tight availability readings. As a reminder, 13D/G positions are disclosed around the 5% threshold and may not reflect current holdings.
The next earnings event is November 6. The two most recent prints both produced sharp negative reactions: a one-day drop of roughly 8.3% in August 2026, with a five-day move of negative 19.5%, and a further one-day fall of 8.7% at the prior event. That consistent pattern of post-earnings selling makes the positioning heading into November worth watching closely, particularly whether the current easing of borrow costs and the call-heavy options book persist or reverse as the date approaches.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open GRPN on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
