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RB Global enters the final stretch before its November 5 earnings with short sellers adding positions and the Street trimming its view, even as the stock holds close to where a director was buying shares just weeks ago.
The short interest story is the most active variable right now. Bears have added meaningful size over the past month: short interest has climbed 13.2% over 30 days to reach 8.8% of free float, with a further 4.1% increase on the week ending October 7. That brings the short count to roughly 16.3 million shares, the highest level in the 30-day window tracked here. Despite the build, the borrow market is not under stress. Availability remains loose at 480%, meaning nearly five shares are available to borrow for every one already shorted. Cost to borrow is low at 0.45% and falling, down nearly 10% on the week. The conditions for a squeeze are simply not present. Options positioning reinforces the picture of modest rather than aggressive caution: the put/call ratio is 0.40, barely above its 20-day average and sitting well below the 52-week high of 0.60. The ORTEX short score has crept up to 58.8, consistent with the gradual short-side accumulation, but not at levels that typically signal extreme conviction.
The Street offers a wide range of views, and the gap between bull and bear has widened recently. Barclays cut its target from $121 to $110 on October 6, the third time in 2026 the firm has trimmed its number while holding an Overweight rating. That target is still 37% above the current price of $80.40, but the direction of travel matters. RBC Capital sits at $152, reiterating its Outperform call in late September. Raymond James upgraded to Strong Buy in June with a $145 target. Against those, Stephens holds an Equal-Weight at $96, sitting only 19% above the current price and arguably the most grounded near-term view. The consensus is constructive in direction but the target range ($96 to $152) reflects genuine disagreement about execution risk. The bull case rests on operating leverage from the Ritchie Bros./IAA combination: management hit its $100 to $120 million synergy run-rate target ahead of schedule, and Q1 showed revenue up 11.4% and adjusted EBITDA up 11.4% year-on-year. The bear case centres on the service take rate, which fell 160 basis points year-on-year to 20.7% in Q1, RBAS platform adoption lagging, and the persistent risk of a tight equipment supply environment capping GTV growth. Valuation sits at 17x trailing earnings and 12x EV/EBITDA, both drifting modestly lower over 30 days as the stock has shed 3.8% over the same period.
One piece of context that cuts against the bearish drift in analyst targets is recent insider activity. Director Deborah Stein bought 500 shares at prices around $80.56 to $81.14 on September 9, all discretionary open-market purchases with no 10b5-1 plan attached. Director Chloe Harford bought 1,200 shares at $83.74 in late August. Net insider buying across 90 days totals roughly 2,050 shares at a combined value of $164,000, small in dollar terms but notable for the clustering near current price levels. The signal is not dramatic, but directors buying discretionarily close to where the stock trades today is a data point that sits in tension with the short-side build.
On the ownership register, BlackRock's most recent 13G/A filing in April disclosed a 12% stake of 22.3 million shares, while Vanguard Capital Management filed a 13G in April showing 9.3% or 17.3 million shares. The Vanguard Group's separate filing from March shows a reduction to zero from a prior 13.6% holding, though per the standard disclosure caveat these stakes are as last disclosed around the 5% threshold and may not reflect current positioning. EdgePoint Investment Group filed a fresh 13G in August disclosing a 5.1% stake of 9.6 million shares. Institutional ownership is broadly stable and concentrated, with the top two holders each sitting near the current short interest level in share count terms.
The prior earnings release, on August 4, produced a one-day drop of 14.8% and a five-day move of minus 20.1%, the kind of reaction that gives bears a concrete reason to hold into the November 5 print. With short interest building, borrow conditions easy, and the analyst target range wide, the key question into that date is whether the service take rate trend and RBAS adoption figures show any stabilisation.
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